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Influenza patients during the 1918 flu pandemic in Iowa.
[Credit: Office of the Public Health Service Historian] from
http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/documents_media/06.htm
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A study The 1918/1919 El Niño, conducted at Texas A&M University, led by Benjamin Giese, Ph.D. shows the 1918-19 El Niño event to be one of the strongest of the 20th century.
The study used new datasets on atmospheric circulation that covered the time period between 1908 and 1958. The atmospheric dataset,was produced by NOAA and University of Colorado scientists through the 20th Century Reanalysis Project. Earlier data suggested that the 1919/1919 Niño was weak.
This conclusion was made on the lack of data collected due to World War I. The study suggests a link to the 1918/1919 influenza pandemic and El Niño.
"What people have been doing to look at past El Niño is to use very sparse datasets and extrapolate based on patterns we know about during recent years," Giese explains. "But those patterns can change."
The study also indicated a strong correlation with a severe drought in India and the El Niño event of 1918/1919. In 1918 the monsoon rains we sparse to nonexistent and severe drought struck the country. At the same time the 1918 Flu pandemic was spreading the globe and it struck India the hardest with causing an estimated 18 million deaths in India alone and over 50 million deaths worldwide.
"1918 was one of the worst droughts of the 20th century in India. There was famine and a lack of potable water, thus a compromised population," says Giese. "It is clear that climate played a role in the mortality of people in India. This is an example of how climate can impact human health. I think it raises intriguing questions."
Is there a correlation to the El Niño event of 2009 and the pandemic we are now experiencing today? It’s too early to make any assumptions. But we can say with high certainty if we have a population that has been stricken with conditions that is compromising its infrastructure and individuals, the opportunistic influenza virus will have a better chance to spread within that population.
With individual immunity suppressed, people who live in these areas could experience a much higher death toll than the rest of the world. That is supported by data on the 1918 flu pandemic.
The 2009 El Niño is forecasted to get stronger and last into the spring of 2010 and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic is also forecasted to last into the spring of 2010 and have a second peak of infection during that same time frame. We will have more on this study and more on the effects of El Niño on central Florida, including the outlook of severe weather that El Niño can bring to Florida. See Todays Local Forecast
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