Discussion
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Much of the Thanksgiving four day weekend will be very nice around Houston, courtesy of an impressive surface high pressure that bridges down from the Great Lakes into Texas. Since the anticyclone is associated with a polar air mass, it may well be that low temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be quite chilly. But latitude and lots of sunshine will start to warm the atmosphere, and as the ridge pulls eastward the flow of air will turn off of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. With warm and humid back in the forecast, therein lies the undoing of our weekend condition on November 29.
Even though the latest GFS model output lost the storm threat for Sunday and Monday, I am fairly confident that a high-yield precipitation threat will advance into Texas from the lower Front Range late in the coming weekend. The linkage with the subtropical jet stream and boost from a Kelvin wave nearing the International Dateline will give the disturbance great potential to drop very heavy rain and thunder while also channeling some much colder air. The freeze line is expected to drop as far south as Matamoras Mexico, and it is entirely possible that locations such as Dallas TX and Shreveport LA could see a touch of snow before the low pressure system makes its run fro the eastern Great Lakes.
It can be said with some certainty (a rarity in weather forecasting, I know....) that most of the medium range and longer term forecast for Houston, and indeed much of the U.S., will be colder than normal. There is now good agreement among the numerical models on a strong Rex signature forming over Alaska and northwestern Canada, with the net effect of setting up drainage of cPk and cA regimes into the nation mainly east of the Continental Divide. Since the subtropical jet stream is so active and lodged to our south and east, we may have to confront the possibility of a more important winter precipitation episode in Texas at some point during the first half of December. And while normally snow or ice is a rarity, just remember what happened last December 11!
Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend Forecast
Wednesday: Sunny and mild. Highs 70 Covington to 74 El Campo
Wednesday Night: Clear and colder. Lows 42 Field Store to 46 Fresno
Thanksgiving: Sunny and cool. Highs 66 Security to 70 Houston Downtown
Thursday Night: Clear and chilly. Lows 37 Stagecoach to 41 La Marque
Friday: Sunny and a bit warmer by afternoon. Highs 69 Fostoria to 73 New Territory
Friday Night: Partly cloudy and not as chilly. Lows 44 Rayburn to 48 Iowa Colony
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, windy, warmer and more humid. Highs 76 Moss Hill to 80 Lake Jackson
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, windy, mild and humid. Risk of a shower. Lows 66 Midline to 70 Quintana
Sunday: Variable cloudiness, breezy, warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be heavy to severe in intensity. Highs 78 Plum Grove to 82 Clute
Extended Outlook
Monday: Periods of rain, windy, and colder. High 60, Low 44
Tuesday: Rain ends A.M.; cloudy, windy and chilly. High 53, Low 40
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer. High 61, Low 36
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