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Credit: SOHO/MDI Spotless Sun 4/19/09
Currently, we are experiencing a deep solar minimum in the sunspot cycle. In fact, not one sunspot has been observed this month with the spotless day streak growing to 44 days straight. The current solar minimum is part of the pattern, and for the most part on time. I say for the most part because it seems many forecasts and scientific analogs pointed towards 2008 being the solar minimum with an increase in sunspot activity arising in 2009. The problem is the sunspot number continues to decrease in April of 2009.
What is a sunspot? Has this ever happened before? What implications are possible if sunspot numbers don’t increase anytime soon? These are questions I have researched and would like to share with you.
A sunspot is a planet-sized region on the Sun's surface that is marked by intense magnetic activity, which inhibits convection and forms areas of reduced surface temperature (therefore making them “dark spots” on the sun). Sunspots are sources of solar flares, coronal mass ejections and intense UV radiation. Sunspot minimums come along every 11 years or so, and when plotting sunspot counts, we see peaks of solar activity are always followed by valleys of minimum solar activity.
Therefore, it is expected for the Sun to undergo minimum solar activity on a regular basis. 2008 was considered a very deep solar minimum where no sunspots were observed on 266 days out of the year (73%). Only one year during the last 100 years observed a lower sunspot activity, 1913 (85%). As of April 19th, there have been no sunspots observed on 96 out of the 109 days (88%) so far this year. However, sunspot activity has been lower on several occasions during the last 400 years.
So what implications would an extended solar minimum period mean for Earth? First I would start by saying there is a better chance than not that sunspot activity increases in the next few months and follows the cycle. For any reason it doesn’t, we should examine past examples of similar cases to see what this would mean for Earth.
According to NASA research, there is a cause-and-effect relationship between sunspot activity and measured changes in global temperatures on Earth. I strongly agree, as evidence shows us that the “Maunder Minimum” and “Dalton Minimum” were times where Earth experienced anomalously cold temperatures. The years surrounding the “Maunder Minimum” are now commonly called the “Little Ice Age”. “Dalton’s Minimum” combined with the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 set the stage for the “Year Without a Summer” in 1816, as it is commonly referred.
Earth’s surface temperature saw a drop in 2008, which I think is no coincidence given the deep solar minimum. IF, we were to see a “Maunder Minimum” type of sunspot activity occur over the next few decades, the world’s economy and agriculture would suffer tremendously. Many scientists who believe in global warming speculate that this deep solar minimum we are currently experiencing will keep global temperatures from rising over the next few years until sunspot activity increases towards the next predicted maximum in 2012 or 2013. Climate change is a much heated debate in the scientific community; however the one mechanism that both sides agree upon which influences earth’s surface temperature is sunspot activity.
Data was collected from the National Geophysical Data Center . Matlab was used for plotting.
As mentioned previously, it should be a matter of time before the solar cycle corrects itself and solar activity increases towards the next maximum. Nonetheless, extended solar minimums have been observed in recent history and if it were to occur, would have tremendous impacts on the world’s economy and agriculture.
If you would like to keep up to date on sunspot numbers, visit this site daily for the latest on solar activity.
Meteorologist Joe Roy
Comments
This article is filled with so much information. It really makes one think where we are going.. Great writing!!!!
This was a really informative article. Keep it up!
This was excellent! I'll plan my trip to the Caribbean during the next solar maximum lol. In all seriousness this was a great article; nice work!
This article is amazing. Very informative. I learned a lot from this article.
Thanks for this article!
NASA has taken an interest in the current solar minimum and has solicited proposals "to study the causes and consequences of the minimum of Solar Cycle 23." Scientists intending to propose a study have to let NASA know of their intent by April 17th and their proposals must be submitted by June 5th.
Besides a dearth of sunspots, other solar indicators are also much lower than normal.
* Measured by instruments on satellites, the solar wind is 20% below what it was in the 1990s and is at the lowest point since solar wind measurements began in the 1960s.
* Measurements of solar irradiance by other satellites indicate the sun's brightness has dropped by 0.02% in visible light and 6% in extreme ultraviolet wavelengths - a 12 year low.
* The sun's radio emissions, measured by radio telescopes, are the lowest since 1955.
Only wrong with this article you sunless sunspots wrong As of today is 44 spotless days..
Climate is changing and always will. The climate celebrities, however, are linking climate and the economy. Yes, there has been warming to end the Pleistocene. Climate is a multiple input, multiple loop, multiple output, complex system. The facts and the hypotheses, however, do not support CO2 as a serious 'pollutant'. In fact, it is plant fertilizer and seriously important to all life on the planet. It is the red herring used to unwind our economy. That issue makes the science relevant.
Sulphate from volcanoes can have a catastrophic effect. But water vapour is far more important. Water vapour (0.4% overall by volume in air, but 1 – 4 % near the surface) is the most effective green house gas followed by methane (0.0001745%). The third ranking greenhouse gas is CO2 (0.0383%), and it does not correlate well with global warming or cooling either; in fact, CO2 in the atmosphere trails warming which is clear natural evidence for its well-studied inverse solubility in water: CO2 dissolves rapidly in cold water and bubbles rapidly out of warm water. The equilibrium in seawater is very high; making seawater a great 'sink'; CO2 is 34 times more soluble in water than air is soluble in water.
CO2 has been rising and Earth and her oceans have been warming. However, the correlation trails. Correlation, moreover, is not causation. The causation is under experimental review, however, and while the radiation from the sun varies only in the fourth decimal place, the magnetism is awesome.
“Using a box of air in a Copenhagen lab, physicists traced the growth of clusters of molecules of the kind that build cloud condensation nuclei. These are specks of sulphuric acid on which cloud droplets form. High-energy particles driven through the laboratory ceiling by exploded stars far away in the Galaxy - the cosmic rays - liberate electrons in the air, which help the molecular clusters to form much faster than climate scientists have modeled in the atmosphere. That may explain the link between cosmic rays, cloudiness and climate change.”
As I understand it, the hypothesis of the Danish National Space Center goes as follows:
Quiet sun ? reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind ? geomagnetic shield drops ? galactic cosmic ray flux ? more low-level clouds and more snow ? more albedo effect (more heat reflected) ? colder climate
Active sun ? enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind ? geomagnetic shield response ? less low-level clouds ? less albedo (less heat reflected) ? warmer climate
That is how the bulk of climate change might work, coupled with (modulated by) sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean. When the waves are closely spaced, the planets warm; when the waves are spaced farther apart, the planets cool.
The ultimate cause of the solar magnetic cycle may be cyclicity in the Sun-Jupiter centre of gravity. We await more on that.
Although the post 60s warming period appears to be over, it has allowed the principal green house gas, water vapour, to kick in with more humidity, clouds, rain and snow depending on where you live to provide the negative feedback that scientists use to explain the existence of complex life on Earth for 550 million years. Ancient sedimentary rocks and paleontological evidence indicate the planet has had abundant liquid water over the entire span. The planet heats and cools naturally and our gasses are the thermostat.
Check the web site of the Danish National Space Center.
Keeping in mind that windmills are hazardous to birds, be wary of the unintended consequences of believing and contributing to the all-knowing environmental lobby groups.
Joe, You are right on. Keep telling the truth. Nature does not lie. The sun is something to keep our eyes on. We are seeing the effects weekly, record rains, record snowfall, cooler wetter spring... it is all adding up. Keep us informed. Thanks again Joe!
Thank you all for responding.
Chistopher, what site do you use for information? I do not doubt you, the site I use tells me differently..
Joe,
Chistopher is correct. For some reason the NASA spaceweather site counted a sunspeck near the end of March that technically wasn't a sunspot. It never received an official number and as a result is not counted in the official numbers. www.solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm bottom right graph.
When you count sunspecks as they did it creates data uniformity issues with past sunspot data collection since it would likely not have been seen or counted 100 years ago.
Thanks,
G
Thank you Greylar for clarifying the "sunspeck" issue. Greatly appreciated. I will fix the article accordingly.
"Climate change is a much heated debate in the scientific community;"
Err..not really. Only in the US where you a majority seem to be in some sort of denial trance.
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