Climate change to result in 50% increase of wildfires

Atmospheric scientists claim the potential for a 50% increase in
wildfire activity due to global warming. (AP Photo)

Sounding the warning sirens about the potential repercussions of global warming, Harvard scientists announced their belief that the changing climate will result in a 50% increase in the amount of land burned by wildfires by 2050.  Should the predictions come true, the increased smoke from an increase in fires could have the effect of further accelerating warming.

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Atmospheric scientists from Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) have generated models that show much of the western half of the United States being at much greater risk from wildfires.  The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, is said to be the first to measure the impact of future wildfires on air quality. 

SEAS Senior Research Fellow Jennifer Logan said, “Warmer temperatures can dry out underbrush, leading to a more serious conflagration once a fire is started by lightning or human activity.  Because smoke and other particles from fires adversely affect air quality, an increase in wildfires could have large impacts on human health."

This graph shows the percentage increase in area burned by
wildfires, from the present-day to the 2050s, as calculated by the
model of Spracklen et al. [2009] for the May-October fire season.
(Loretta Mickley, Harvard School of Engineering and Applied
Sciences)

Based on an assumption of a 3 degree Fahrenheit temperature increase over the next 41 years, researchers said the area burned by wildfires in the western United States could increase by 50%.   At particular risk are areas in the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains where a tripling of wildfires is expected.  The additional burning would add to the impact on the atmosphere by increasing the amount of organic carbon aerosols in the atmosphere by 40%.

The research team used 25 years of meteorological and fire data to develop a baseline.  They then used one of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s models to determine potential impacts forward 50 years. 

Some who study climate change caution that studies such as these are based on false assumptions.  The same models the IPCC uses - and on which this study is based - have beem shown to not only be unable to have predicted historical climate changes, but the results they generate fall outside acceptable scientific boundaries.

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