NOAA image: tropics are stone quiet as we move into Novermber: quietest season in 12 years
The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will have the lowest activity since 1997, provided no further tropical cyclones form. There is a quite a good chance no more storms will form: usually, less than one storm per year forms November in the Atlantic Basin (period from 1944-2002). Plus, strong wind shear continues over most of the tropical Atlantic, consistent with an El Nino pattern.
The 1997 season saw four tropical storms and three hurricanes; so far in 2009 there have been two hurricanes and six tropical storms.
If another one forms in the Atlantic Basin this year, then 2009 would tie 2006 as the season with the lowest storm total so far in the 21st Century.
The 1997 season and this year were El Nino years, which coincide with lower storm totals.
This is due to stronger upper level winds which create a sheared environment. Tropical cyclones are vertically stacked and such winds disrupt the structure and circulation within.
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