Sea ice coverage reaches its low in September and high in March most every year.
The Arctic ice melt season is drawing to a close. The Arctic summer is becoming autumn; with the much lower sun angle and rapidly shortening days bringing a halt to total ice melt for another year. The ice cover will begin to slowly increase before the end of September.
In contrast to the record low coverage of 2007, the graph for this year shows the 2009 trend in blue. This is still on the low side of average for sure (compare to solid gray line).
Please bear in mind that July 2009 came in with record warm global ocean temperatures, and yet the ice cover remained well above the record (2007) low point. So it’s obvious many factors work together not only in the Arctic but globally to modulate the climate signal.
A logical prediction based on the warm oceans of 2009, which is likely to carry into 2010, would be less sea ice cover next summer. But then it’s not a one-variable system, so many interactions will factor in, just as they did for the 2009 melt season.
Comments
The Big story is over the past two years sea ice summer minimum extent has grown in both the arctic and anarctic.
At a time when news storys blast on about tipping points and no ice on the north poll in the coming years, the truth looks to be nothing like the "sky is falling" alarmists would want us to belive.
When we see that the ice comes back the readers and viewers might never trust the big media agian, and never come back to them.
Steve says:
"if sustained for another two or three years, would be significant if not earthshaking."
If I said it this way, THE LASY 3 YEARS HAVE BEEN THE BIGGEST MELTOFF SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN, it would also be statistically correct.
Since climate cyles span centuries, and as always there are annual and decadal cycles within major climate changes, then a 3 year trend is absolutly useless for saying anything about cliumate.
Sorry about the typos, this web tool your site uses allows the text to drop below the window so I can't see what I am typing and am not going to stop and scroll down to see where I make mistakes anymore...
I love the "third lowest sea ice... blah blah". Seeing as how 2 years ago was the lowest... last year was the second lowest... and this year is the third lowest... it would occur that things are getting colder... I know... that's crazy talk nowadays.
Earl, thanks for your note. As I mentioned in the post, my point was exactly one of pointing out the folly in using a 30-year or six-year trend of ice for a basis of conclusions regarding human-caused climate change (warming) or global cooling. It's just too short of a time span...so we agree. SCL
it should be noted that all the talk is about sea ice extent. volume (thickness) has declined year over year for some time. this year the wind pattern was the reverse of '07 and instead of bunching the ice up, it spread it out, which, interestingly enough contributed significantly to the overall melt.
Not one of group of thirteen experts on the NSIDC panel predicted such a low ice melt. As for short-term trends, they are only referring to the average since satellite coverage, since 1979. There is plenty of evidence of earlier melting, even in the past century. Until there is money in it though, cooling will not get the same press.
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