Meteorologist Rich Apuzzo
It’s the final day of summer 2009, and just like the rest of the summer, it won’t feel anything like summer today as highs get only into the low 70s. Typical highs are in the low 80s, and we won’t see that type of warmth until late-week. Just in case you need a reminder, since you won’t hear about “autumn” in the media until mid September, meteorologists and climatologists see the seasons as consistent 3-month increments which start sooner than the calendar indicates. Therefore, meteorological summer is June through August and autumn begins September 1st…tomorrow. Not only is the 3-month pattern better for record-keeping, we also see plenty of evidence of the new season well before it starts on the calendar. This weekend is a classic example; the final days of August in the 70s? There were even frost advisories over the northern Great Lakes this morning.
Since autumn starts tomorrow, let’s quickly review the summer of 2009. Despite the recent drying, the summer will end well above normal in rainfall with 14.46 inches since June first…normal rainfall for the period is 11.96 inches. June was the wettest month with over 7 inches of rain, and August had the least with only 1.78 inches (officially at CVG) this month. The summer will also end nearly 500 total degrees below normal or 5.4 degrees per day. Despite a few warm spells, it was a chilly summer featuring only 4 days in the 90s, and not a single day above 91 degrees. Now we head into September…
Autumn begins on a cool and quiet note tomorrow as high pressure over the Midwest remains in control of our weather pattern through most of the week. With the high pressure center to our north, we’ll have light northeast to east winds through Saturday and that will keep temperatures below normal with dry air across the region. Daytime highs will slowly increase through the 70s tomorrow and Wednesday into the low 80s Thursday through Saturday. We’ll have abundant sunshine through midweek with scattered clouds returning Thursday and Friday. At this point, Labor Day Weekend looks great with highs in the low 80s (80-84) and lows around 60 under partly sunny skies. There may be a shower threat by Monday, but I’ll have a better handle on that in Wednesday’s update.
With the quiet weather, I’ll update a few other weather stores as well. First of all, the tropics remain well below normal in activity with only 4 named storms halfway through the season, and three of those were barely identifiable as tropical systems (Ana, Claudette and Danny). “Bill” was the only storm to have some serious power and reached major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) with winds at one point estimated over 135 mph…but that was over open ocean waters and Bill never hit any landmass. The peak of the hurricane season is 2 weeks away and we only have one disturbed area that may develop into a depression later today or tomorrow. I expect that the season will end well below normal in tropical activity.
Out in space the sun remains on a record pace at 51 days without sunspots, and no expectations of any change soon. We’ll be in thetop 3 longest quiet periods by Wednesday evening (tied with 54 days from 1879) and by late next week we’ll head into the 2nd position as we surpass 63 days from 1901. The daily solar observations began in 1849, but we know from other observations between 1400 and 1830 that these periods of sunspot minimums were associated with a 400-year stretch known as the Little Ice Age. The only problem with observations from that time is that there were no telescopes and satellites with the observational power we have today. In other words, the long periods without sunspots are even more impressive now because we can pick out the smallest sunspot, ones that would have been missed 100 to 200 years ago. We won’t know if this is true for a long time, but at this point there is no reason to discount the idea that we’re heading into another Little Ice Age, or possible a major ice age. Time will tell…
Rich Apuzzo
Chief Meteorologist
Skyeye Weather LLC
www.skyeyeweather.com
Comments
I was wondering if you could add
the speed of the Gulf Stream,
the strength of the Earth's magnetic fields, and
the polar ice annual decline to your summary?
I have read that the magnetic field strength may have something to do with the distance between the Earth and the Sun.
Thank-you for your article and pointing out the fact that today we are counting sunspots that would be completely missed by earlier observers.
This current sunspot inactivity should be a warning to agriculture and be taken into consideration in regards to crop forecasting and planning. I've seen research that a implies a five year or so lag between changes in sunspot activity and major weather changes, but it seems as though the changes in temperature and cloud cover/precipitation are already becoming big players in the weather.
I hope we don't wait to react to these indicators until we have major crop failures and a catastrophic impact on food production and prices. It may not be PC to take the position of Global Cooling, but from where I sit it looks like an oncoming train.. It's time we focus on the science not the politics.
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