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As this storm develops, the chance of moderate to heavy snow is more likely. Central Maryland will see at least 4 inches of snow, with double or tripple that amount in many locations!
Isn't this the ultimate Catch 22? Today is the official beginning of meteorological spring, but this storm will behave like January. Very cold air will fill in behind it, so the snow will stick around for a while. If you have followed my Winter Forecast (tab at the right), I went with 30 inches of snow this year. I don't think that will happen, but still hold on to the reasons with this active winter. Now it's our turn, and at least a chance to get back to our seasonal average. Currently BWI has had 3.3", so a 12 incher would bring us back to near normal. The maps are in the slide show below...
Morning Set Up:
The first wave has pushed through, and the main show will not begin for us until later today. The forecast looks like it is following the Canadian Model that I showed in last night's post. Check it out by clicking here.
Blocking High: This is this one that will prevent the storm from moving farther out off of the coast.
Arctic High: This is what will feed very cold air into the system, and keep our temperatures in the 20s for a few days following the storm. The snow on the ground will help refrigerate the air, and should stay on the ground at least all week. No quick melting with this one!
Monster Storm: This is the slow moving coastal that will arrive later today and last through Monday. The upper level energy I showed in yesterday's post will feed into this system. The track looks perfect for a mostly or all snow event.
Mixing? As will most strong coastals, there can always be warm air mixed in at cloud level to bring in sleet and cut down totals. This looks like a mostly snow event, but the heaviest precipitation zone may also have the best chance for mixing to even out the totals.
Snowfall: I have all of the maps in the slide show. I would love to be wrong, and have the snowfall go much higher than I am forecasting. That is always possible as models don't always handle individual bands and local geography that well. However, there will be a sharp transition from light/moderate snow west to heavy snow east. Any shift in the track or snow bands can dramatically change the amounts.
Strong Winds: In classice coastal Low fashion, the winds from the NE will be 20-40mph on Monday. Coastal winds may range between 50-60mph. That will blow around the snow, and drifts in the 2 foot+ range may be an issue.
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Comments
When do you think the snow will start? 5 or 6ish maybe?
12-18 inches, with up to 2 feet in some spots. This storm is the real deal. I've been saying this all along. Bombs Away!!!!!
We live in Bel Air with my pop-pop. Do you think we will have school tomorrow?
Sorry about my grandson's earlier post Justin.
I got ready to post my comments and got up frpom the desk. By the time I got back, he typed in his own!
Sooo noo school? I cant see any school until Wednesday if this thing is for real..
Teachers and Students: I think school closings are a good bet for Monday. I may have a major postponement to announce this afternoon. Chck back later.
Hey Justin, I see the NWS in State College has finally included York County in the Winter Storm Warning area fun. I also see there official forcast has changed to a storm total of 4"-9" for York County, so I'm assuming the models are all choosing the closer to the coast track? The closer the better for more snow!!! My daughter is actually starting to believe we will get the storm.
Even Weather weenies could see that the storm is tracking closer to the coast then the NAM & GFS were saying, which is good gor us. I said that I thought the track would be another 50-75 miles west then forcasted. Last nite, HPC & NCEP issued a statement that the GFS & NAM was improperly initialized, with the west coast storm further east than it actually was. This caused both models to send our storm further east off the east coast than it should've been. They came to an agreement that the solution was a combo of the canadian & the Euro, which places the I-95 corridor right in the BINGO FRONT ROW catagory. I'm sticking with my 12-18 inches with possible thundersnows and rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour possible. It will get much colder as this storm progresses which will increase the dynamics of the atmosphere. Justins favorite, the trusty canadian model, has the -3 isotherm cutting right up the Balto/Wash corridor, and this isotherm is where the heaviest snow falls. Looking forward to some fun, get out there and enjoy it snowhounds.
Bob K i completely agree with you on the fact that the storm is going to be about 50-70- miles west of forecasted. i dont think that the metereologists for the big national companies are doing a good enough job with this storm. Right when the storm gets here it will snow the air is moist from last night. Also if you look at the radar it appears as if the precip is expanding north west. This is good for me i live in baltimore county. Also i think that the eastern shore might get ripped off and have a lot of sleet. last thing on the Mr. Berk is the snow you are talking about tomorow afternoon from the snow that is in Georgia right now.
Right or wrong what you're seeing is conservatism at its best. The models have no way of predicting accurately where the convective snows will setup. The POSSIBILITY could be that much but it's also a fast mover. Wish we had some nice blocking. I'll take 6-12 and if I get more... BONUS.
We're sitting on the hill, sleds and snow tubes are ready, chicken chili on the stove top, dry fire wood in the fireplace.....bring it on!! dagnabbit, we forgot the toilet paper and milk!
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