PRELLIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK BY KIRK MELLISH FORMULATED SEPT 16TH ISSUED ON AIR SEPT 25TH.
FOR GEORGIA WINTER PRECIPITATION DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR-NORMAL NORTH AND ABOVE-AVERAGE SOUTH WHEN THE 90-DAY SEASON IS TOTALED UP AND AVERAGED OUT.
TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE SHOULD AVERAGE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD. THAT MEANS a 90-DAY MEAN-- NOT EVERY DAY OR WEEK BEING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT THE AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.
ABOVE-NORMAL CHANCE OF ICE AND SNOW.
AT LEAST ONE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE.
The bulk of winter will be January through March with November and December more benign. Active storm tracks will keep things interesting from late November into early spring. The El Niño should peak no more than moderate and will probably be followed by a La Nina by next summer.
FACTORED INTO THE FORECAST IS THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED STATE OF A MOSTLY WEAK EAST-BASED EL NINO, A NEGATIVE PHASE QBO AND PDO, THE SOLAR MINIMUM CYCLE, LACK OF GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL STORMS, TOTAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND RECURING OF ATLANTIC HURRICANES, AND SUMMER SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR CONDITIONS.
PAST HISTORY BEST MATCHES THE COMING WINTER TO THOSE OF THE FOLLOWING ANALOG YEARS:
1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, AND 2002.
1951 was warmer than normal with precip near-normal ice plus 3.9” snow
1957 was colder than normal with precip below-normal 2.7” snow
1963 was colder than normal with precip above-normal ice plus 3.6” snow
1965 was colder than normal with precip above-normal ice plus 0.70” snow
2002 was colder than normal with precip was near-normal to slightly drier than normal ice but no snow
This is based on data at Atlanta Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.
A FINAL WINTER FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER THANKSGIVING.
My winter forecast last year graded out very high on temperatures and total precipitation, except for snowfall, which due to great variation was good for some and bad for others as I forecast too much for some and too little for other parts of Metro Atlanta. My summer forecast for this past season was right on the money for both temperatures and rainfall.
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