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'The Twilight Saga: Eclipse' - Summit Ent.
A lot of people in the film industry have quite famously opined that The Twilight Saga: Eclipse has a better chance of blowing up the 2010 box office by sheer temporal positioning than did The Twilight Saga: New Moon in 2009.
That is in part due to the fact that New Moon was the only one of the top ten biggest box office openings which did not debut during the summer.
So, for the most part, many have taken it as a given that Eclipse will probably outperform New Moon in this year's box office, but at least one source feels otherwise.
Here's what Box Office Mojo has to say on the issue:
Odds are that Eclipse won't reach the heights of New Moon, given the history of closely-timed, serialized sequels. The Matrix Revolutions, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and even Back to the Future Part III all grossed significantly less than their predecessors. When a second movie is hotly-anticipated after the first movie's success, it's highly unlikely that the next picture will even maintain the momentum (The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter being notable exceptions), and signs from New Moon's run suggest that The Twilight Saga will follow the pattern. New Moon had one of the biggest openings of all time, was extremely front-loaded and probably wasn't as well-liked as the first Twilight: Box Office Mojo readers gave it a "C+," compared to the first movie's "B." Also, the vampire fad could show fatigue by the summer, given the flood of vampire-themed TV shows, movies and paraphernalia in the market.
This is actually a really interesting matter (and not necessarily just because of the issues concerning The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn).
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Twilight series fans have certainly proven their staying power over the past few years. The books started coming out roughly five years ago, and the buzz surrounding the series only grows deeper and more defined as time progresses.
BOM has made a good point here that New Moon's box office intakes were "front loaded," meaning a lot of Twilight fans went and saw it first thing and early on in the release, but didn't continue to see it as many over-and-over times as they might've with Twilight. That might not, however, be as crushing of a statistic as this opinion makes it out to be.
Perhaps, instead, you could point to the fact that the first film drew in a lot of the fanbase and that many of Twilight's viewers were newcomers to the series (who maybe went and saw it as a result of its grand opening numbers or the film's initial chatter). In that case, it wouldn't be very surprising that the New Moon viewership came out in a more timely manner.
Even with a front-loaded release, New Moon proved to be a big player in the box office game for 2009. So, the question is: will Eclipse bring in the same latitude of moviegoers as did New Moon?
With the variables pointed to by Box Office Mojo, there are certainly some sequel-related obstacles to consider, but do the historical figures associated with three-quels really apply to this series? Perhaps not. Perhaps the Twilight series likens more to LOTR and Harry Potter than Matrix.
There's at least one obvious similarity which would beckon such an opinion: the fact that they are all based upon book series which have a built-in and long-standing fanbase as opposed to being off-the-cuff continuances of a popular film series. So, yeah, maybe Eclipse follows upon New Moon rather closely in time - and this is not something that most films see success in doing - but there's hardly any chance that Twilight fans will take a rain check in seeing Eclipse in theaters, will they?
Another point to consider, and this is more against BOM's analysis than anything else, is the fact that a large amount of Twilight's audience consists of young adults. A summer release for this demographic would be helpful to them seeing the film (given that school wouldn't be in session).
While BOM certainly goes against the grain and raises some interesting points, it's not altogether convincing that Eclipse will not fare as well in the box office as New Moon.
Thanks: His Golden Eyes
See also:
2009: The year of 'The Twilight Saga: New Moon'
'The Twilight Saga: New Moon' contributes to $10 billion box office this year
'The Twilight Saga: New Moon' is highest grossing drama of 2009
'New Moon' reaches a half billion in worldwide sales
Comments
Now I personal think the Eclispe will do just as good...in fact I cant wait till it comes out...its driving me crazy and Im waiting on them to film Breaking Dawn..it could not come soon enough..
I'm always amazed at the conclusions that are drawn.
Many times the box office receipts have nothing to do with the audience/film and everything to do with the release timing/theater schedules and yes, weather.
Personal experience-
When Twilight came out I really don't remember many other movies opening that I wanted to see. This year I would have loved to have seen many others. The offering was better.
Twilight played in my area for about three weeks with a regular schedule. One theater actually continued showing Twilight the week that the DVD was released.
I saw New Moon 5 times, twice on the 20th of November! I was able to go that many times as all four if my kids were in school and I could go to the movies at ten in the morning an still have dinner on the table! Eclipse will be harder for me since they will be out of school, so I won't have the pleasure of seeing it back to back. I will have to go to later showings and not as often, mostly to babysitting fees and my husband not understanding of my obsession! But I am looking forward more to Eclipse than I was for New Moon!!! Is it June yet!
cont'd
New Moon played a regular schedule for 1 week here and then due to new movie openings had it's rotation cut short, two possibly three show times and the number of theaters carrying it reduced.
The one theater that held New Moon through last week had 1 showing a day at 1:20 pm - too late for me to catch it before needing to get my kids from school. I saw Twilight twice while my kids were in school. That theater was smart. They had an 11:40 am showing and yes I saw it in the theater AGAIN the week the DVD came out.
I was only able to see New Moon once in a theater. It's gone.
Lastly, which is never taken into account, the Northeast has been freezing- no one was going anywhere! I didn't even want to go out to take out the garbage.
I hope Eclipse has a longer run with better time schedule. If it does it will do just fine.
I think you can only compare the Twilight Saga with situations such as Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter. The Twilight Saga of movies is not just an idea that they decide to keep making sequal movies to, it is based on a series of books which has a beginning and an end. Sequals don't work because they are trying to make a new idea out of an original good one, a saga is a story that continues to be told!! I will be there in line for Eclipse and I am even more eager for BREAKING DAWN!!!
I was actually thinking about this earlier. Eclipse's numbers at the box office may not be as great as New Moon's, and the primary reason is cause a lot of other films will be released during the summer. I know for sure that I will watch Toy Story 3, The Last Airbender, and of course Eclipse.The thing is it's going to cost me to watch all these movies. So if someone who is not a Twilight fan or has not liked the Twilight films
goes to the movies, they have a lot of other options and are more likely to watch another film. But I'm sure that the Twilight fans will pull through and make Eclipse just as great as New Moon.
All the movies BOM used in his example were movie NOT AS GOOD as the previous ones. It CAN be concluded that if Eclipse is not as good as New Moon then it will not perform as well.
Eclipse is also this year's July 4th weekend release so it should have a HUGE opening. If the summer films that are released after it are targeting the same audience, that, too, can hurt it's chances of surpassing New Moon.
We'll se what kind of hype the first trailer sparks (whenever that will be).
I believe Eclipse will do just as well, if not better. It has a built in fanbase because of the books just Harry Potter. It is coming out in the summer versus fall/winter and lets not forget it will be in IMAX which will result in higher ticket prices which means more money. Fans of this series don't care that the movies are coming out close together, um hello I think I speak for most when I say we want these movies to come as quickly as possible. Seriously is it June 30th yet?
There is also the Victoria switch done that could also hurt Eclipse. Its known that replacements/switching actors done in mid series really hurts. I am waiting to see what others say about it before seeing eclipse. and most people i know are doing the same. if bryce doesnt delivery i am not wasting my money. i will download it first. lol.
I want other films to do better.
Twilight is just a phase
That kind of made me mad. Whoever wrote that obviously doesnt know twilight fans. They are simply comparing it to any old movie that made a sequel. I beileve Eclipse will do better than new moon only because of the simple fact that it is coming out during the summer. How dare them compare it to back to the future! lol. Its not just some movie that made a part 3, its "the Twilight SAGA" for goodness sakes!
yes it may be July 4 weekend which means more movies out like the last airbender and few others. i think it will do better than nm it will also take longer. and yes there is the rachelle switch that will hurt bo numbers. nm has made what 684 mil. in less two months. eclipse will take a little longer than that maybe 3 mos. so many great other movies coming out this summer. honestly imax is great for a movie like avatar but eclipse. i dont know if i want to spend more money. for some movies its annoying with. i have a feeling eclipse is one of thoses. another thing that may hurt is the marketing promise they used for nm about it being more action more guy movie and then they didnt delivery on it. my hubby has lost faith on it he refuses to see eclipse with me now. and many of our guy friends are the same. eclipse has hugh stakes against it.
Ah... i just thought it would be interesting to mention that the exceptions of sequels that did do better than there predecessors were originally books... hmm interesting... coincedentally so is Eclipse lol
If anything i feel eclipse will do better than new moon, both edward and jacob fans hav sumink to look forward to in the movie and i KNOW all the saga fans r greatly anticipating the release including me LOL.
TEAM EDWARD <3 <3 <3 <3 <3
victoria is only in eclipse at the end of movie so i dont think it matters and ev1 i know thinks eclipse is the best book of the saga so i dont think twilight twi hard fans will fail this film also cant wait for BREAKING DAWN !!!!
The article kind of contradicts itself. The movies sequels that did well one right after the other are books, so people are already invested in them (Harry Potter and LOTR). The Matrix and Back to the Future weren't books to begin with, so the sequels didn't have the appeal that Harry Potter, LOTR and Twilight have. The same people who saw New Moon are the same people going to see Eclipse so we are so intrested in the books.
I agree with one of the other commenters...BOM is out of touch with Twilight fans...I just went to see NM yesterday (again) and the theatre was full...The comments were all positive as I eavesdropped on my way out...Trends and "phases" do come and go, but then there are those that hold their own for a very long while....In conclusion, I'd like to say, that when you get one negative remark, it tends to get totally overblown...We all know the work of the actors already involved...David Slade I am sure did a awesome job on Eclipse...I loved 30 Days of Night... Mr Slade definitely has a handle on the whole Vamp situation, so I don't think they could of picked a better Director for this episode than him...Changing "Victorias" was unfortunate, but she is a small piece in a big fat pie...It won't make or break the movie...Stay Strong Twilighters...
Do not worry . Eclipse WILL BE A HUGE hit.The author of the article just does not understand the powr of LOVE and the fans devotions to the books, author, actors ( If they ever in trouble we'll bail them out!) It just so painful to know that they have the movie already and we can not see it sooner. June? We love ALL the actors. Talent is optional. It is how they make us feel that matters.They are so true, shy, withdrown, just natural teens in love. I would easily pay a $100 to see the movie now.
BOM is making its hypothesis without truly understanding the Twilight fanbase. Minimal research would give the writers a clue to the enduring popularity of the series. Personally NM was my least favorite book, and look how amazingly well it did at the box office. I have no doubt Eclipse will...er...eclipse New Moon's performance. :-)
After frustration in New Moon I lost my interest about Twilight movies. I believe I'm not alone.
Personally, I would think some people would have more time to see Eclipse not only due to school being out for teenagers but also adults not having to deal with things that go along with the holiday season.
I definitely think Eclipse will do better than New Moon just because of its release date. It was really hard for a lot of people to go see New Moon because of weather and holiday activities. I did see it 5 times in the theater and the last time I saw it, the theatre was pretty full. I'm really looking forward to Eclipse as it was my favorite book in the Saga.
also for alot of fans including myself, eclipse and BD are my favs, so i'm sure more will be at the box office for that reason as well.
HAHAHA sorry, had to get that out of my system. We've been waiting how many YEARS? A few more months is nothing! And we'll do it all over again for Breaking Dawn (hopefully only once) but if it's broken up into 2, we'll do it twice for that, too! Not until every Twilight juice is sucked out will we be done craving it - even then we'll still want more!
My friend and I saw NM yesterday afternoon for the 10th time and it was packed. We had to sit in the first row! Besides having motion sickness it was still just as good. I would say that half the people there were seeing it for the first time. I don't believe Eclipse will do less business. I agree that it will be easier during the summer without the holiday interference. I must admit I am concerned about David Slade. I think he goes for shock value.
no vinky... ure not alone... im not too enthusiastic about eclipse either. I loved twilight and i really liked new moon but im not head over heels about eclipse even though eclipse and bd are my faves in the saga. oh well.
eclipse is going to be an awsome movie just to see how jasper became who he is and to see about rosaile sad past its going to be great i cant wait to see the fight with the new borns.....breaking dawn will pull more money than all of them cuz that book just amazing
While New Moon was 'technically' better than Twilight, it didn't have the same heart. I saw New Moon twice, but only because my daughter wanted to see it again. With Twilight, it was like I was being sucked into the theater over and over - 5 times altogether. I've watched it many more times on DVD. I think Eclipse will do as well as New Moon, but if it doesn't have that spark, things won't bode as well for the final movie.
well BOM. Just doesn't know anything.
Eclipse will do better
Obviously the writer of the article is again a hater
As a more "mature" Twilight fan, I will comment (and this is my first time commenting)that I saw New Moon twice in the theater. However, while I wanted desperately to see it again and again, adult commitments to holiday preparations prevented me from returning. I had planned and so looked forward to seeing the movie over the Christmas break when I was not working. But, much to my dismay, New Moon was not shown after 12/24 at the two theaters that are close to me. I am counting the days until the release of the DVD.
Reasons why Eclipse will do better:
~Summer release
~Eclipse was the favorite book out of all 4 for many Twi fans {including myself}
~The 3 main characters will be continuously present throughout Eclipse, unlike the lack of Edward in NM and the lack of Jacob in the first movie.
~David Slade will have a darker tone that resonates with the more serious vampire fans
~As stated by the cast, they are hoping for to add more of a male audience this time around {with the lure of David Slade, darker tones, violence and action}
~They are keeping the anticipation high with the lack of leaked stills and/or trailer
~While NM might of let some down, that is not going to be enough to keep Twi-Hards away. I have a feeling we all would travel far and wide to see a badly made 10 minute movie if it related to Twilight somehow.
Correct me if I'm wrong but don't the lovebirds get back together and make all mushy mushy in Eclipse? Isn't that what the fans and all others want to happen to Robsen? Isn't that what the whole Eclipse is about? Or at least 5 minutes of it anyway. Who cares what other movies did. Twilight is a world all it's own and it's that 5 minutes that will make the film. Of course it's going to be bigger than NM. Doesn't matter what time of year it's released.
Duh.
eclipse will gonna be one of the blockbuster movies...the trailers are amazing and the David Slade is the director in Eclipse which is the director in 30 Days Of Night so he really fits to be the director in Eclipse and that movie are gonna be amazing cuz it has lots of romance,horror and funny moments which the people will be so excited to watch it!
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