AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
As of this very moment, Nate McMillan is preparing for a dinner date later tonight with someone very special. Nate will woo his date, likely by spending a large amount of the conversation talking up what he does for a living as Portland's coach. Later on, if Nate has his way, he will take his date home- home to the starting lineup of the Blazers. His date, of course, is Hedo Turkoglu. Who were you expecting, Megan Fox?
As an astute and clever basketball analyst predicted two weeks ago, Portland's top target in free agency is Turkoglu, the talented Turkish small forward. Turkoglu's passing, ballhandling, shooting, and scoring abilities have everyone from Dwight Howard to the people of Istanbul wondering where he will end up. Well, wonder no more, for it is very likely Turkoglu will become a Blazer, as long as Portland is willing to do 1 thing: overpay.
Turkoglu is 1 year removed from winning the NBA's Most Improved Player award, and just weeks removed from leading his team to the finals, so it safe to say his value has never been higher. Earlier this offseason, he turned down a 4 year deal worth an estimated 36 million dollars from the Magic, the team he has publicly stated he would like to stay with. Now that the Magic have Vince Carter on board, it appears that they are out of the running for Turkoglu. Yet, a new team has entered the picture, one desperate enough to easily top that offer: the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors have an unhappy superstar on their hands in Chris Bosh. He has yet to win much of anything north of the border, so when his contract expires next Summer, you can bet he'll want to join another team even more than he wanted to be an All-Star. That is, unless Toronto improves enough to make a playoff run and convince him to stay. General manager Bryan Collangelo believes it will take a very talented acquisition to accomplish this, and he has targeted Turkoglu. This means Turkoglu's price tag will be driven up even further, possibly to the 50 to 60 million dollar range.
Three years ago there was a similar bidding war for a tall and talented international small forward. That forward was Peja Stojakovic, who came away with a 5 year, 64 million dollar pact from the Hornets. That team featured budding stars Chris Paul and David West, and they believed a sweet-shooting wing player was the one player they needed to become a championship contender. Did Peja help the team's development? Absolutely. But, his contract has also crippled the team's financial flexibility, to the point where a few months ago they tried to give starting center Tyson Chandler away in a lopsided trade so as to save a few bucks and escape paying the luxury tax.
Now, overpaying for a player isn't always bad, and is sometimes even necessary. Adding a talent like Turkoglu will help the Blazers this season, whether they are paying him minimum wage or A-rod money. Where salary issues will come into play is further down the road. If, in a couple years, the Blazers want to fortify the bench or upgrade at point guard, it will be much more difficult with Turkoglu and his big contract around. This is not an issue if Turkoglu is the final piece of the puzzle and helps bring Portland a championship. But, if it turns out Turkoglu is only one of the missing pieces needed, well, good luck finding the others with only the mid-level exception.
To further complicate things, it sounds like Rudy Fernandez is not thrilled about the prospect of having his playing time reduced by Turkoglu, and may attempt to demand a trade or play overseas again. The Blazers should keep in mind Rudy just saw his best friend on the team, Sergio Rodriguez, get traded. The happiness of one of Portland's most popular and talented players has to be a concern.
Certainly, a Turkoglu signing will not come without a substantial amount of risk. Perhaps tonight at dinner, Turkoglu ought to be the one doing the wooing.
Comments