The Rasmussen poll showing Congressman Ron Paul in a virtual tie with President Obama is probably skewed by the pollster's likely-voter model and "house effect," according to independent pollster Nate Silver.
When the house effect -- internal biases in the polling -- is taken into account, former governor Mitt Romney fares best in hypothetical match-ups against the president in polls, Silver explained on FiveThirtyEight.com.
"After adjustment for house effects, Obama's lead over Paul is not 1 point but more like 10," Silver said. "This result is closer to that obtained by a PPP poll in November, which had Obama ahead 46-38 against Paul."
Taking out the house effect and using a cross-section of several polls, Romney loses to Obama by a score of 46.3 to 40.7, which is the closest of any GOP contender, but still trails the "generic Republican" in polling against the president.
See Silver's explanation HERE.
A poll taken last week by CNN shows Romney trailing Obama 53 to 45, while among Republican registered voters, Romney gets 20 percent of the vote, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee 24, and Ron Paul 8 percent.
Update: Here are the match-ups of GOP candidates with Obama in Silver's analysis, and the average point spread of Obama's lead, based on an average of polls to remove house effect.
Romney: 40.7 Obama: 46.3 (5.6)
Huckabee: 41.2 Obama: 47.8 (6.6)
Paul: 35.8 Obama: 45.7 (9.9)
Gingrich: 37.6 Obama: 49.8 (12.2)
Palin: 36.5 Obama: 50.9 (14.4)
The "generic Republican" actually runs ahead of Obama on average: 42.6 percent to 40.7 percent for Obama, in Silvers poll analysis.
Comments
Looks like the neocons want mitt again. No surprise. Then again most of America dont consider them republicans and the once republicans are now independents thanks to BUSH.
So Ron Paul wins... screw the repub est.
Yeah, the same guy who passed a law that forces citizens to "buy" health insurance in Mass. beats Ron Paul's results against Obama after you change the polling numbers. Thats so crazy!
They forgot to say the poll was done in Utah!
"Looks like the neocons want mitt again.:
Yep, they want the torture programs back in place, and Mitchell and Jessen, the Mormon Mafia back in the CIA terrorizing the decent agents
Tom what Mitt is doing with the "Yeah, the same guy who passed a law that forces citizens to "buy" health insurance in Mass. beats Ron Paul's results against Obama after you change the polling numbers. Thats so crazy!" ---- is a mind control technique, that is why it "feels" crazy, it is intended to give a double-bind message.
I always appreciate Nate's thoughtful analysis even if I don't like his conclusions but Ron Paul and his supporters have a habit of being able to do much better than they were supposed to by conventional political wisdom and seem to shock the establishment over and over again.
In 2007-8 he was lucky to get 2% in any poll or get positive media coverage. Now 3 years out and he's winning and tying early straw polls and getting 8% right out of the box.
He's on TV almost every other day and the passion of his supporters runs so deep that they will not stop, slow down or be discouraged.
The Ron Paul movement doesn't play by the rules, they make new ones and the wise would be weary to discount them being able to pull off a minor miracle.
Romney uses the ‘double-bind’ method of covert and overt mind control. The “double-bind” is the use of contradictory messages. It is intended to shape people into his line of thinking, His “constant ‘repetition” of Romney is ethical, moral, honest, fogging issues are unethical methods of mind control, used by ruthless, meanest individuals ever.
That is why some are feeling Romney’s flip on health care feels ‘crazy’. It is sophisticated and calculated methods Romney is using.
Time the American public wakes up
Except that 'house effect' is like Einstein's 'Lambda', whatever is needed to make the answer the one you, or in this case, Silver, wants.
The poll says what the poll says, and the public doesn't want a mere choice between two seasonings on the same Romneycare/Obamacare.
The times, they are a changin'. The MittWits and other welfare/warfare neo-cons are like dinosaurs in the Republican Party. They're going extinct, but they're trying to eat as many true conservatives as they can on their way down.
I love when RIGHT-WING conservatives try to deconstruct the word “conservative” and recraft it in the image that best represents them, at the time. George Bush was a conservative and he out spent Clinton. By that record alone, President Bush would be at the top of the top 10 RINOS in history.
Romney certainly is no “RIGHT-WING” conservative, but he’s a conservative of the finest types.
He is prolife
He is profamily
He is for smaller government
He is for lower taxes
He is for the 2nd amendment
He is for a strong military
He is against Obamacare
Neither Huckabee, Palin, Paul, or Pawlenty has campaigned or is currently campaigning to abolish abortion laws, gun control laws, etc. And what experience do they have concerning health care? None.
Only Romney can competently compete against Obama.
Jim, you're confusing conservatives with libertarians.
True conservative = George W. Bush for 8 years.
John Doe:
The majority of Americans are not going to go for Ron Paul over Obama. It's never going to happen.
The only way to get rid of Obama is through Mitt Romney, only he can appeal to conservatives AND Independents and moderate Democrats.
I love Romney's tan. I think he's only running because he, just like Boehner, do not want to pay an excise tax on tanning. Don't mess with a man's tanning bed, I tell you what.
Fake tan 2012.
Ultra-conservatives are always overplaying anything they don't like.
They'll criticize Romney's pro-life conversion in 2004, but say nothing about Palin's daughter's out-of-wedlock pregnancy in 2008.
Now that Sarah Palin is a multi-millionaire, (12 million) how will they criticize Romney's wealth? Romney's wealth was created by creating 1000s of jobs, and Palin's 12 million? Not so many.
Some Republicans are just ignorant.
@Romney 2012 And what experience do they have concerning health care? None.
~ Ron Paul, M.D. does not equal none wrt experience concerning healthcare, imho of course.
Romney's fundraising outpaces rivals such as Palin and Pawlenty by 3 to 1.
Full tilt:
When is the last time Ron Paul, M.D. practiced medicine with genuine patients, 1997?
Ron Paul is a fine fellow who won't 1) win the Republican nomination, and 2) win the general election.
This doesn't mean his voice shouldn't be heard but it means that we all know Ron Paul's role.
He's not a serious contender against President Obama.
Anyone who is orange looking and resembles Patrick Bateman from American Psycho gets my vote. Our future president is into cuckolds and wears a cheetah print banana hammock to bed that exposes his tan lines.
Romney 2012
@Romney 2012: You're confusing conservatives with Democrat-lites. A reversal of direction is required to save the country. MittWits just want to tinker with Obamanation.
yeah sure Nate Silver.
your bias is showing.
and nobody is listening to you.
charles ranalli
albuquerque
Hey Romney ass-kisser,
didn't he force people to take a health care coverage plan in Mass? Yeah, he's just another corporate crony. So much for Romney as president. That'd just be another Barack Obama. Expand war, force healthcare, more and more of the same. Sorry, Romney has got you fooled, man.
Ron Paul definitely has a shot. If you look at this way, you'll see what I mean; think back to 2007 when Fox asked the question, "concerning electibility.. uh.. is there any sir?"
Where everyone laughed and FOX called Paul a 9/11 truther.
Fast forward to today; Paul is consecutively on TV stations shown blasting Bernanke, he introduced the best bipartisan bill in the House (HR 1207, where's Romney's comment on that?), he knows that Congress must be declare war before going to war (I remember Romney saying let the lawyers look at that LOL), Ron Paul's son is about to win in the senate, Peter Schiff was going to be his economic adviser in '07 and he's huge now.
Ron Paul has a damn
chance.
The pro war neo-conservatives are now fringe while Ron Paul on the other hand, has become mainstream.
Amazing when you think about it.
I know people often compare Mitt Romney to a phony bullshittin used care salesman. Well those people, who are they? They're the losers who sit at the river embankment all alone eating a bologna sandwich and playing with their pickle. Mitt may be indecisive about everything, but principals are overrated.
Vote Romney for 2012 and we'll end the excise tax on tanning.
Jim:
Mittwits? What, you don't have any really good arguments to convince Romney's supporters over to your cause so you resort to insults?
The only possibility for Ron Paul's ideas to have a chance in American is for Romney to win in 2012. If he doesn't, Obama will have so entrenched his policies and its dependencies that its reversal will be very difficult to extricate.
Romney is the hope of Ron Paul supporters in 2016 or 2020.
I consider myself slightly left and independent. I'll definitely vote for Ron Paul but not Romney.
Thos who think Paul has a shot in 2012 haven't considered what a "shot" means.
Does Ron Paul have a shot at being heard again? Yes. Does he have a chance to be heard more in national debates? Yes.
But Ron Paul has NO chance to be on the General Election ballot notwithstanding any poll.
Ron Paul's response to universal health care is IDENTICAL to Romney's response - it's unconstitutional. Paul is for free health care for the poor through free subsidized clinics and charities that receive tax breaks.
Ron Paul won't get the nomination and he wouldn't win over Democrats or neoconservatives in a General.
Paul supporters believe in "forcing" their opinions down anyone's throat because they think they are the only ones who read or love the Constitution.
That Romney beat Ron Paul in the SOUTH, is large.
Romney is for the Constitution and for principles of liberty just as much as Ron Paul.
And you can't articulate how Ron Paul is MORE for those things than Mitt Romne
Sam:
Your vote is meaningless in a sea true independents and moderate Democrats who will vote for Romney.
Mitt Romney beat Ron Paul without being at the event.
My friend Sam,you vote for Ron Paul and I vote for Mitt,it's mean you have never learned any mistake,so you will take one more defeat,but I stand for the winner,last election Mitt is not the loser,the loser is John McCain and the liberal republican,Mitt is the real American leader,he can beat Obama by landslide 2012.
Ronmey is a flip flop baby killer, just like Stupak.
Romneycare == Obamacaer
Dear Conservatives, (Palin's voice)
Hi there! Sarah Palin up here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here in Alaska. Well, how is that hopey and change stuff working out there for ya. Us hockey moms up here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here support Mitt Romney and his tan. I want to bombs away Iran and let them know they aren't here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here in Alaska and Romney wants to bomb Iran.
Sincerely,
Sarah Palin
Vote for Bombing Iran, vote for Romney 2012
Calvinist will believe anything the liberal media tells him/her to believe.
neocon
mittens
for sale
(or rent)
Would I lie to you
Would I lie to you honey
Now would I say somethin' that wasn't true
I'm askin' you sugar would I lie to you?
Dear Conservatives, (Palin's voice)
Hi there! Sarah Palin up here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here in Alaska. Well, how is that hopey and change stuff working out there for ya. Us hockey moms up here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here support Mitt Romney and his tan. I want to bombs away Iran and let them know they aren't here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here in Alaska and Romney wants to bomb Iran.
Sincerely,
Sarah Palin
Vote for Bombing Iran, vote for Romney 2012
Romney = Palin = Obama = Clinton = McCain = Bush = Guiliani = Corporate owned socialists.
I guess Romney will consult with his lawyers instead of the constitution. Why do the same names pop up every election, we need real change but I'm afraid there are still not enough people enlightened to vote for Ron Paul. I think the country is too far under water for any turnaround to be effective as long as the same old are still in Congress so we'll be doomed. Let's clean house in 2010 then look towards 2012.
How moronic, the discussion of who can win, rather than principles and policies. Romney is an ignoramus and a whore as far as his approach to,among other things, money and banking. If you don't understand the criminal role of a central bank in a free society, you're an ass. You might as well stay home.
If you don't understand how entangled your freedoms are with your country's foreign policy choices, you're more of an ass. As long as they can whip up a war and sell it to you, the federal dirtbags--left, right, socialist, fascist, whatever you are calling them at the moment--can rationalize spending the country into ruin and taking away your freedoms for your own good. It's happening right now. Are you people retarded?
If you understand how money and power work, mechanically, historically, you will see that there is no difference, whatsoever, between Romney and Obama. Just stay out of the discussion if you like these cretins. Call and vote for the next American Idol if you must v
couldn't agree more with this comment. If only people would go read something like "the Law' by Bastiat and wake up.
Dear Conservatives, (Palin's voice)
Hi there! Sarah Palin up here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here in Alaska. Well, how is that hopey and change stuff working out there for ya. Us hockey moms up here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here support Mitt Romney and his tan. I want to bombs away Iran and let them know they aren't here in Alaska, heck -a- good state here in Alaska and Romney wants to bomb Iran.
Sincerely,
Sarah Palin
Vote for Bombing Iran, vote for Romney 2012
Read Mitt's book and you will love him! Did you know Mitt is actually his middle name and first name is Oven? Did you know his real last name is D3EE231 and he is made entirely of plastic and his voice is a digital composite of the voices of several famous radio pitch men? The only way to stop Oven Mitt D3EE231 is to pry the door in his back open and rip out the wires, and Obama doesn't have the guts! Obama will cower in homosexual terror before Mittler! Mitt is our man! He will lead our third world empire to greatness! He will drench the middle east in (more) blood when Israel commands it! He will bring in a socialist utopia bought with money that exists only in our collective imagination! Mitt is it! Tan and fit! Oven Mitt! Is the S**t!
JESUS F CHRIST!!!!!.....they're still shoving Mitt down our throats. What's the matter with these f-ing retards. The coiffed dandy lawyer consulting automaton is irrelvant. Put Ron Paul and Mitt Romney in a room to debate and you'll see real quich whose the man with true conservative principles and whose the regurgitating sloganeering manchurican candidate.
Everyone just wake the F up! Do you want to be poor the rest of your life kissing the boots of the government forever?? If not, then do any of the following:
*)Watch Obama Deception free on YouTube
*)Watch Freedom To Fascism free on Google Video
*)Read "Revolution, a Manifesto" by Ron Paul
If I am wrong, you are out 2 hrs of your life, or a few more to read a book. If I am right you will begin to wake up to the true reality we are living in. If you think of yourself as open minded, then prove it!
@ Romney2012 ...you said ...
Romney is for the Constitution and for principles of liberty just as much as Ron Paul.
Which begs the question ... what is Romney's view on separation of economics and State ?
As another example where you misrepresent the truth about the similarities between the two men. I find it amusing though that your arguments are based on ... Mitt is just like Ron Paul but he can win and Ron Paul can not ...
In the last Presidential Primary Mitt's followers would have never made such an association ... for those of us paying attention it tells us how much Ron Paul has directed the issues of the debate...
Your guy is not setting the issues of the debate but instead once Ron Paul speaks Romney is like .. yeah me too.
Is funny.
I cant wait for the debates between Mitt Romney, the Republican version of Bill Clinton, and Ron Paul ...
Ron Paul for the long haul ... will bring back memories to Corporatist Romney.
Talk to conservatives in Massachusetts - they can't stand O'Romneycare, the "healthcare program" in Mass that was the precursor to Obamacare.
Please get educated.
This guy must be on Mitt's payroll.
i'll vote for anybody but not romney.
This Country will be begging Ron Paul to run in 2012.
look romney has made some mistakes, but he can change, he always changes. he'll be anything we want him to be. that's why we should vote for the robot with the fake tan. mitt romney!
"Mandate Mitt" Romney will have a lot to answer his own party for regarding health care because this new reform models itself after his own policies as Governor of Massachusetts. All Paul needs to do is remind the Republicans that.
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