Did the Home Run Derby keep Ian Kinsler out of the All-Star Game?

Ian Kinsler tags out Bobby Abreu, the man whose post-HR derby struggles may have indirectly cost him a roster spot. AP Photo/Lori Shepler

As Major League Baseball prepares for All-Star festivities the next two days in St. Louis, there is a certain weirdness hanging over the Texas Rangers’ participation.

The Ranger reaction to this particular All-Star season has to be more of a head scratch than a fist pump. Strange things are happening.

First, there’s Josh Hamilton, a starter thanks to fan voting. Injured or ineffective for all of 2009, Hamilton has by far the worst numbers of any starting player on either team. It’s nice that the Rangers finally have one of those players who can be voted to the team even though he has been one of their worst hitters this season. Nice, but odd.

Conversely, Kevin Millwood and Ian Kinsler, arguably the two best Ranger players this year, aren’t in St.Louis. Immediately after being snubbed in favor of Tim Wakefield, Millwood went out pitched his worst game of the year, as though he felt a need to validate the snub. Weird.

Then there’s Nelson Cruz, tabbed as a replacement for the disabled Torii Hunter, after three straight days of riding the pines for the Rangers. The selection of Cruz was also unexpected because it bypassed all four of the losing “final man” candidates, including Kinsler and Adam Lind, an outfielder. If Joe Maddon felt the need to replace Hunter with another outfielder—not necessarily a requirement on a roster already stocked with seven outfielders—then why not Lind? If Cruz was more deserving than Lind, why wasn’t he in the “final man” vote? Bizarre.

The weirdness even reached down to the minor league level. Neftali Feliz, the only Ranger prospect selected for yesterday’s futures game, became the inadvertent starting pitcher for the World squad, after World starter Junichi Tazawa cooled off during a 4 hour rain delay. Feliz, who has been working as a reliever in Oklahoma City, suddenly turned into the all-prospect starter. Strange.

The most curious case of all, though, is Kinsler. By my count, he has now been snubbed exactly six times, which must be a record. (1) He lost the fan vote at second base to Dustin Pedroia, in one of the closest votes ever. (2) He wasn’t picked by the players, losing out to Michael Young. (3) He wasn’t picked by the manager, despite having lead the vote at his position just days before, leaving his hopes resting entirely on the “final man” vote. (4) He lost the “final man” vote. (5) He was passed over in favor of inferior teammate Cruz as a replacement for Hunter. (6) When Pedroia decided to skip the game due to a family matter, making it virtually impossible to leave him off the team, Maddon picked Carlos Pena instead.

The rationale for choosing Cruz over Kinsler? Gotta take an outfielder to replace an outfielder. The rationale for not choosing Kinsler, a second basemen, to replace Pedroia, a second baseman? Gotta go with the home run leader.

Really?

Here’s another possible explanation. As recently as four days ago, the American League had only one confirmed participant for Monday’s Home Run Derby, the unlikely Joe Mauer. Defending champion Justin Morneau begged off. So did Hamilton, the unquestioned star of last year’s event. And since no one but Mauer had signed up by Friday, it’s a reasonable assumption that every other AL All-Star said “no thanks” as well.

Why wouldn’t a player want to hit in the Home Run Derby? The better question is, why would they? The trouble started with Bobby Abreu in 2005. Abreu, who averaged 25 homers a year between 200-2004, had 18 at the break in ’05. He put on a show in the Home Run Derby in Detroit, with a then-record 24 in the first round. Then his home run swing seemed to depart him, as he hit just six more home runs the rest of that season. The following year, he had just 8 at the break and was soon traded. He has only one 20 home run season since. It may have been a coincidence, or time for a decline, but several people—including Abreu himself—suggested that his swing was negatively affected by taking too many home run hacks in the derby.

The phenomenon then repeated with others, especially those who put up big single round derby totals. David Wright, who had 20 homers at the halfway point of the 2006 season, hung a 16 in the first round of that year’s derby. He hit only 6 home runs over his next 114 games, finally regaining his power stroke in May of 2007. Vladimir Guerrero had a 17 homer outburst in the ’07 derby, and hasn’t been the same player since. Finally, there is Hamilton, who had 21 home runs before the break last year, but only 11 after his legendary 28-bomb first round in the Bronx. Obviously, the first half of this season has been even worse.

Others, such as Morneau and 2006 champ Ryan Howard, haven’t been affected. Still, four high profile cases over four straight years is enough to scare away a lot of ballplayers. Which brings us back to the present, and the AL’s need to find at least four sluggers willing to risk it in the derby.

Within 48 hours of winning the final man vote, Brandon Inge was confirmed for the derby. Cruz was announced as a derby participant simultaneously with the announcement he was on the team. Same with Pena.

Let’s put all of this together and see what we’ve got: (a) AL hitters refusing to swing in the home run derby + (b) Cruz and Pena selected over more obvious candidates Lind and Kinsler = (c) theory: replacement candidates were informed that their selection would be conditioned upon agreement to participate in the derby, and Lind & Kinsler either declined, or didn’t accept quickly enough to give the league comfort. They have 19 and 20 home runs respectively, more than enough to justify entry in the derby had they been willing. The league didn’t have to select Cruz and Pena with their slightly higher HR totals (22 and 24) to give the derby credibility. But they did need to select players willing to take part.

Sure, it’s a conspiracy theory, and like most conspiracy theories it is based more on conjecture and circumstance than actual evidence. But it has something else in common with other conspiracy theories: it arises because official explanations are lacking. There is no good reason that Lind was not picked to fill in for Hunter, or Kinsler for Pedroia, unless a desperate AL needed derby entries and couldn’t get assurances from Lind or Kinsler that they would play ball.

A check of Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows that Lind does not have an incentive clause that would pay him anything for making the All-Star team, so he wouldn’t have been walking away from any direct hard money by turning down the derby.

Kinsler does have a $50,000 All-Star incentive. Perhaps no rational person would turn down 50 grand just to avoid what amounts to a little extra batting practice. But consider this: $50k represents 1.67% of Kinsler’s $3mm salary. If your employer offered you a one time bonus equal to less than 2% of your salary, to do something that you believed was dangerous, silly, and potentially damaging to your career and future earning potential, would you do it?

If this theory is correct, then baseball should take a lesson from the NBA, which doesn’t require players to actually be on the All-Star team in order to compete in All-Star “skills” festivities, like the slam dunk or three point contests. That practice originated when the big names started pulling out of the slam dunk contest to avoid injury. The league realized that the slam dunk contest would still be an attraction even if the contestants weren’t actually All-Stars. If the trend of players avoiding the home run derby continues, baseball may need to do the same thing.

As I said, maybe Kinsler didn’t say “no,” exactly, maybe he just didn’t say “yes” fast enough. Or maybe there is no reason at all. Maybe Joe Maddon just hates Ian Kinsler, or maybe he couldn’t resist the temptation of taking his entire infield with him to St. Louis.

Or maybe the whole thing is just weird. 

UPDATE: Michael Young was elevated into the starting lineup Tuesday afternoon, just hours before the first pitch of the game, due an infected ring finger on Evan Longoria's right hand. Great news for Young, but the flipside for the Rangers? Chone Figgins of the Angels was added to the roster to replace Longoria. If you're counting, that is snub #7 for Kinsler. Since this snub occurred after the Home Run Derby, maybe this lends more credence to the "Joe Maddon just hates Ian Kinsler" theory.