Much ink, digital and otherwise, is being devoted to the Tennessee House race in District 62 because of its implications for overall control of the Tennessee House of Representatives. This is appropriate because of what the special election for that seat means for Tennessee in the short term, and much space has been devoted to it here for that reason. The Associated Press is using another word to describe the race in District 62-it could be, says the AP, a bellwether:
Voters go to the polls Tuesday in a special House election that could serve as a political bellwether for Tennessee.
State Democrats, meanwhile, have made winning back the House their top objective -- a task that would become all the more difficult if Cobb fails.
Republicans hold a comfortable 19-14 majority in the Senate, so who controls the House will have a major effect on redistricting of legislative and congressional seats following the 2010 census.
It may be comforting for Democrats to see this particular contest as some kind of indicator of how things might be next year-in a District that usually votes Democratic for the House in the first place. If the Associated Press has rendered an accurate statement where Democratic sentiments about the District 62 campaign, what does it mean that the Democrats are considering this race as their bellwether for next year? If District 62 is the Great Indicator of things to come, does this mean that we can expect Democrats to attempt to run to the right of their Republican opponents on gun rights, abortion, and the income tax (or preferably the continued lack thereof) in Tennessee, as we have seen Ty Cobb try to do?
Tennessee voters can then presume that we will see Democratic candidates parading their new-found pro-life credentials en masse, and we will see the Democratic Chairman all over the press talking about how out of touch the Republicans are because they aren't pro-life like so many Tennessee voters. Next thing we all know, we'll see the Democrats telling us about their NRA memberships. If District 62 is the great bellwether of Tennessee, can we then presume that we will hear Democrats shout from the rooftops about their support of SJR 127 and a basic social conservative philosophy as a political backdrop.
Yes, that would make District 62 a real bellwether, because it would signal that-at least in Tennessee-liberalism will be politically dead, and that the 2010 General Election in the Volunteer State will be fought between a right-of-center political party and an even more right wing party.
What's that? You think that is a fantasy? If it is, so is the idea that the District 62 special election is a bellwether for the Tennessee House.
Comments
I think you're reading "bellwether" wrong, honestly. A win in 62 and an additional seat in 2010 would mean that a Democratic Legislature would get to redraw the districts (which is done every 10 years), giving Dems a demographic advantage. If they draw the lines right, they could own the house until 2020. That's what they mean by bellwether. No one's filling out NRA forms just yet.
Brad-I understand what "they" mean, but I think "they" are counting their chickens too soon. Whatever the outcome in District 62, the present political climate still favors the Republicans gaining seats in 2010
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