On Friday we discussed at length what some people have called "pro-life politics 101," which is essentially the idea that pro-life forces should take actions politically designed to advance the pro-life movement and the cause of the unborn first and foremost before concerning ourselves with the goals of a political party. Such a discussion needed to be had in the wake of Tennessee Right to Life's endorsement of Democrat Ty Cobb over Republican Pat Marsh in a race where Marsh himself has given evidence that he is not committed to the pro-life cause as an issue that he should be concerned with. Right to Life made the decision that the preponderance of evidence in the District 62 special election showed that the Democratic candidate was the most pro-life and so he received the endorsement.
There are times when pro-life people are placed in a situation where the Democrat is clearly the best choice for the movement. Both Pennsylvania and National Right to Life always had standing endorsements for the late Governor Robert Casey, and likely would have endorsed Casey in a presidential run were he miraculously nominated. The reason wasn't just that Casey was pro-life, but his Republican opponents were consistently and publicly pro-abortion. Further, Casey showed a willingness to fight the federal government on the issue that few governors of either party have shown before or since. It made sense that both State and National Right to Life groups endorsed Governor Casey in a very public way over and over again.
In politics, there are times to speak openly and times to keep silent, and just as Tennessee Right to Life made a public endorsement based on pro-life political principles, those same principles may have mandated not making any public statement of preference during the special election campaign. Since numbers in the Tennessee House of Representatives are extremely tight in terms of partisan control and Germantown Republican Representative (and pro-life stalwart) Brian Kelsey has yet to resign his House seat. If he does not do so soon, the Shelby County Commission will appoint his replacement and will almost certainly choose a Democrat. If that happens after a Ty Cobb victory over Pat Marsh in District 62, the Democrats will again have effective control of the House with 50 members.
Votes this past session have shown the electorate that half of the Democratic Caucus is pro-life (or inclined to vote that way), but the Democratic Leadership has known that all along, which is why they did everything in their power to keep pro-life legislation from reaching the floor when they were in control of the House. There is little reason to believe they would not do so again. Would a Democratic House majority serve the interests of the pro-live movement in Tennessee? If history is any indication, the answer is very likely not. If the Republicans had more substantial numbers in the House, the District 62 special election would not carry with it the element of control that it does, and wouldn't be as big of a political deal as it is.
Tennessee Right to Life may also be placing its own important political clout at risk. If Pat Marsh should upset Ty Cobb in the 62nd District (and at this point it would be an upset), it sends the signal to the House Republican Caucus that they may not need Tennessee Right to Life's endorsement or support to win in some key districts, and that could place the pro-life agenda on the back burner. Worst of all, if Ty Cobb does defeat Pat Marsh as many now expect, the House GOP may be inclined to place the blame on Tennessee Right to Life. One source inside the House Republican Caucus told The Examiner "if we lose that race, we're blaming them [Tennessee Right to Life]." That is not a position the movement can afford to be in when passage of SJR 127-the State constitutional amendment clarifying that there is no right to abortion in the Tennessee Constitution-will hinge largely on the actions of the next General Assembly.
Under these political realities, it may have been the best course for Tennessee Right to Life not to make a public endorsement in District 62.
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