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Sunday's severe risk areas. Slight/Mod areas by SPC.
Saturday's storms were finally limited to a small area, and better yet there were no tornado reports! There were just a handful of hail and wind reports, which is a nice change since the previous two days both had deadly tornadoes.
Unfortunately Sunday may be back into the tornado-realm of things, with ongoing convection turning into redevelopment in the afternoon hours over parts of eastern and southeastern Texas and all of Louisiana. This is the area that should see the most significant coverage of severe storms--and tornadoes. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has southern Louisiana under a Moderate Risk for severe weather on Sunday. They also outline a larger area for a slight risk for severe storms across all of Eastern Texas, Southern Oklahoma eastward through Southern Arkansas and Mississippi.
On the map I have outlined the SPC's severe risk areas as well as the area I'm most focused in on. Note that in Southwestern Louisiana the SPC's Moderate Risk area overlaps with my interest area. Therefore, the threat seems most significant in that area by consensus. Here is where significant tornadoes may be possible in the late afternoon hours.
For storm chasers, the areas farther north into Arkansas and Oklahoma seem less appealing to me. Moisture and moisture depth will be significantly lacking, however very cold mid levels may be able to compensate for the lack of moisture. With good instability in these areas there could be some storms, and that must be what the SPC is homing in on in those areas.
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