Why the Rams will win the NFC West

If you have come this far with this article then you must be curious to what I could possibly mean when I say the Rams will win the NFC West.  The simple answer is that I don't believe that they will win the NFC West this year.  But I do believe that there is an outside chance that they could.  I would even put a number to it.  I would give them about a 5% chance of winning the West. 

My reasoning is that this is the NFL and things can happen that can dramatically change the outlook of a teams chances.  The Rams clearly do not have the best talent in the league and clearly do not have all the pieces together as we sit here in the first week of September.  But what they do have is an opportunity in a weak division to steal a division title.  Here is the blueprint of what it will take for the Rams to win the NFC West.

Turnovers: One of the hugely important stats of the preseason was that the Rams defense forced 12 takeaways in their four games.  If that sort of production carries over into the season than the Rams will have a chance to surprise some teams.  The one stat that is the most telling in an NFL game is the giveaway/takeaway ratio.  Teams that force more turnovers have a greater chance to win football games.  If the Rams can somehow continue that trend then the Rams will win some games that they "shouldn't".

Run Defense:  Last season the Rams were 29th against the run.  If the Rams are going to have any chance this year they are going to have to greatly improve that stat.  It does not mean that they have to become the Ravens or Steelers in one season but if they can get into the mid teens in the league in rushing yards against then the Rams will have a chance.  The Rams have a pretty good secondary and if James Laurinaitis steps up, like he appears to be doing, then the Rams have an opportunity to win the West.  Who steps up at defensive tackle remains the biggest question.

Controlling The Clock: The Rams are not going to outscore teams this season. It is as simple as that. They don't have the receivers to stretch the ball all over the field and as much as we think the offensive line has improved, until they prove it on the field there is not a lot of confidence that Marc Bulger would even have time to get the ball down the field to anyone.  So what has to happen is the Rams are going to have to have an offense that is going to keep getting first downs by converting on 3rd and short opportunities.  With Steven Jackson and a good tight end like Randy McMichael it should be possible to move the sticks by keeping the Rams out of 3rd and long situations.

Marc Bulger:  One of the huge question marks for the Rams as they move forward beyond this season is where do they stand at the quarterback position?  If Marc Bulger returns to his former Pro Bowl form then the Rams can continue forward with him as their guy.  If Bulger can't stay healthy or perform better then it is probably time to part ways with #10.  Bulger has not spent much time on the field this preseason so it remains to be seen which way he is going to go, but if Bulger can control the play, be accurate, and not make mistakes then the Rams have a chance to be a lot better then people will give them credit for.

Quick Start:  The Rams schedule is not the most forgiving for a first year head coach but I don't think it is as bad as we once thought.  If the Rams are going to have a legitimate shot at the NFC West title then anything less than a 2-2 or 3-1 start would be unacceptable.  The reason I say that is that if you want to "steal" the division then you have to be able to go to Seattle and win and go to San Francisco and win.  Neither of those teams are what you would consider elite teams.  Both places have been houses of horrors for the Rams in past seasons but both of those teams are vulnerable and the Rams have some confidence heading into the season.  If you can take those two and somehow get a win at home over the Packers or on the road at the Redskins then it would put you on the path to winning the West.

Surprises:  If the Rams are going to surprise the NFL and win the NFC West then they are going to need some players to come from off the radar and make some big contributions this season.  They are going to need James Laurinaitis to become a stud linebacker.  They are going to need Chris Long become a stud pass rusher (which I think is going to happen this season).  They will need Jason Smith to become a strong offensive lineman.  They are going to need someone to anchor down the middle of that defensive line.  That might come from Spagnuolo mixing and matching down by down.  They are also going to need a Keenan Burton or Derek Stanley to become a real threat at wide receiver.  If all of those types of surprises happen then a division title could happen.

A Weak Division:  Maybe the greatest reason I believe the Rams have a shooter's chance at winning the West is because the division is easily the weakest in the NFL.  Even though the Arizona Cardinals were in the Super Bowl last year, the reality was that they were a 9-7 team that got red hot in the playoffs.  History tells us that the team that loses the Super Bowl usually struggles mightily in the following season.  When you add in that the 49ers were a 7-9 team last season that has struggled to come up with a starting quarterback for the 2009 season and a Seahawks team that is much like the Rams, trying to rebound from a disatrous 4-12 season, then you can see that it is not going to take 11 or 12 wins to take the division.  If the Rams can get to just 9 wins then they would stand a shot at winning the division title.

History: I would like to see a show of hands of people who correctly predicted that the Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins would make the playoffs in 2008.  No one saw that coming but a series of events happened around those teams that made them successful.  There is no reason that lightning in a bottle couldn't happen in St. Louis.  All of those teams didn't see what happened to them coming.  The Falcons and Ravens had rookie quarterbacks and the Dolphins were coming off a 1-15 season.  But things happen.  Tom Brady goes down, a couple of rookie quarterbacks gain confidence and all of a sudden D.O.A. franchises make big turnarounds.

Health: The Rams will need to be healthy throughout the season at all of their key positions.  They first and foremost can't lose Steven Jackson for any time this season.  The falloff is dramatic and Jackson is the Rams only dynamic player on offense.  In addition to the Rams being healthy the Rams will need some injury help with some of the offensive pieces in Arizona (Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin) San Francisco (Gore) and Seattle (Hasselbeck).  It doesn't even necessarily need to be that those players are injured for a long period of time but key injuries at key times or players that are hampered by nagging injuries are part of the breaks that happen in the NFL.

Expectations are clearly not high with this team and there is certainly skepticism around St. Louis that the Rams will do anything this season.  The vast sporting public in St. Louis is more concerned about what the Cardinals are going to do in the playoffs and how great it was to see Missouri football shock Illinois this past weekend.  Those are great things and are overshadowing the Rams getting ready to start the season.  I don't believe that the Rams are going to pull another Greatest Show on Turf act but I do believe that there is at a minimum, a chance that by the time the Cardinals have wrapped up their playoff run that people might be looking up to see the Rams leading the NFC West.  In the NFL the improbable can become possible in a heartbeat.  A win in Seattle on Sunday could be a sign of something good on the horizon.

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