Ichiro: Ready to plummet in 2010?

Baseball's most notable seamhead, Bill James, has come out with a curious list of players most likely to improve on their 2009 season.

For the record, there are no Mariners in his top 10 but Everett's Grady Sizemore made it for the Cleveland Indians.

On the other end, he also lists those least likely to improve. Two Mariners made that list, RF Ichiro and 1B Russell Branyan, a free agent who may return.

Ichiro! Interesting as well as bold.

James released his lists in Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2010 as part of his "Strong Seasons Leading Index.'' According to his advance statement, “Age is the most obvious indicator of likely movement,'' he writes.

“We also know that players tend to move back to their historical norms, so we look at last year's On-base Plus Slugging percentage compared to his career OPS,'' he said. “We also factor in a player's batting average on balls in play, his strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his speed before distilling all this into a single number that indicates how likely a player is to have a strong season in the coming year.”

I am not a big SABR guy. There are some indicators (that's better) you can draw, but I think those who do that become a slave to the numbers without accounting for the human elements.

But to take on, or take down, Ichiro is something he may regret. Certainly, Ichiro's age is becoming a factor. He turned 36 in October. But the Sultan of Slap (I had Swat earlier, which I didn't mean to do. A reader pointed out that Babe Ruth already has that one. But I can't figure out how to respond individually, so here's this) is unlike any player James has ever measured. He keeps himself in extraordinary shape, and that includes meticulous stretching that other players tend to forgo as they age. He's motivated by numbers. He pressured by an entire country. He has an enormous number of intangibles that can't be put on a data sheet.

The other thing is even Ichiro's big-league career is illogical. Just look at his batting during his nine seasons with the Mariners:

2001: .350

2002: .321

2003: .312

2004: .372

2005: .303

2006: .322

2007: .351

2008: .310

2009: .352

During three of his finest seasons, Ichiro followed with good but not great ones. After he won the batting with a .350 during his MVP season in 2001, he hit .321 and .312. That was a declining pattern that the baseball seamheads would have used their sharp pencils to project a sub.300 season in 2004.

What did Ichiro do? He set a Major League single-season record for hits with 262 and hit a career high .372 in 2004.

Yet he followed that with a career-low .303. Again, those number nerds would say, told you so. He's on the decline. Since that season, he hit more than .350 twice (2007 and 2009).

Go figure, seamheads.

He hit .351 last season so, based on his pattern, he likely could falter in 2010. But this is a guy who defies age and patterns.

As far as Branyan is concerned, I tend to agree. I'm not sure he'll ever have the kind of season he had last season with the Mariners.

Here's a list of James most and least likely:

MOST LIKELY TO IMPROVE IN 2010:

Dioner Navarro, Tampa Bay

Chris B. Young, Arizona

J.J. Hardy, Minnesota

Russell Martin, Los Angeles Dodgers

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland

Dustin Pedroia, Boston

James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers

Ian Kinsler, Texas

B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay

Nate McLouth, Atlanta

LEAST LIKELY TO IMPROVE IN 2010

Jorge Posada, New York Yankees

Matt Diaz, Atlanta

Craig Counsell, free agent

Russell Branyan, free agent

Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay

Scott Podsednik, free agent

Derrek Lee, Chicago

Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels

Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle

Rajai Davis, Oakland