UEFA Champions League Preview, Group A

Yoann Gourcuff (left) and Maraoune Chamakh for France's
Bordeaux (photo: WSR)

Groups A through D resume UEFA Champions League group play on Tuesday, as the tournament's initial stage enters its home-stretch: the reverse fixtures; second-half of the schedule; the point after which we can start comparing teams with more certainty.

To this point, we can only be reasonably confident that (from these groups) Chelsea, Porto, and Manchester United have solidified claims on the knock-out stage. None of these teams are technically, mathematically into the next round, but let’s not qualify this too much. They’re going to move on.

After Tuesday, we will know if we can say the same about Bordeaux. When the French champions and Bayern Munich meet for the second time, we will be able to look at their race for the two qualifying spots in Group A with the knowledge that they can not take any more points from each other.

That example is particularly informative since Bordeaux, leading Group A, leads Bayern (third place) by three points. With a win at Allainz Arena, Bordeaux all-but-mathematically locks up a birth in the final sixteen, and even with a draw they make it almost impossible for Bayern to pass them.

While Bayern-Bordeaux is the most poignant of Tuesday's examples, the same view can be cast on CSKA Moskow's trip to Old Trafford, Milan hosting Real Madrid, Wolfsburg's trip to Turkey, and Porto's visit to Cyprus for their reverse against APOEL.

Come Wednesday morning, three teams could have knock-out round births clinched, while prominent clubs like Bayern, CSKA, and Atlético Madrid could be eliminated or on the brink.

We will get to that match-ups from Groups C and D later today. First, here is a look at Groups A and B.

Club	Points	Diff

Juventus winger Mauro Camoranesi is one of the Old Lady's stars looking for consistency in league and Europe.
Bordeaux	7	+2
Juventus	5	+1
Bayern Munich	4	+2
Maccabi Haifa	0	-5
Through three rounds.

Group A

This match day's featured contest: Bordeaux goes to Bayern with a chance to go six points up on one of the two teams with whom they are competing for a knock-out phase spot. Bordeaux beat München in France two weeks ago, taking advantage of a Bayern team that would finish the match with nine men, posting a 2-1 win.

Mathematically, this isn't a must win for Bayern, but the probability of them going through narrows dramatically if they only get one point. Juventus should be expected to get three points when they go to Haifa to play Maccabi (even considering Juventus's recent inconsistent performances in the Serie A). That result would put Juve on eight points. With a draw in Munich, Bayern would only have four, meaning they would have to win in Turin on Matchday 5 to have a chance at advancing. If Bayern wins in Italy, Juventus could still advance by beating Bordeaux on Matchday 6, a match that is unlikely to matter to the French champions. So while Bayern is technically alive if they draw versus Bordeaux, München need three points.

To get it, they will have to win without the suspended Thomas Müller and Daniel van Buyten, the red carded players in France. Van Buyten is a valuable player but plays in a position of depth, but while Bayern has depth in attackers, they have few healthy players who can step into Müller's role without compromising other positions. Martín Dimichelis, returning to health, can play for van Buyten, but Franck Ribery is out, and Arjen Robben is not healthy enough to do anything but come off the bench. To replace Müller, Louis van Gaal can start Hamit Altintop or switch to another formation entirely.

Switching and tinkering is something that Bayern has gotten used to under van Gaal. Only months into his new assignment, with a series of injuries and three critical pieces to integrate into the team (Robben, Mario Gómez and Anatoliy Timoshchuk), van Gaal has tried almost every combination and formation imaginable. At times, it has been inspired. More often, it's been contrived and ineffectual.

With Bayern sitting sixth in league and on the verge of being relegated to the Europa League, the time for tinkering is over. With depth characteristic of one of the biggest clubs in the world, München can handle the injuries and suspensions. It's up to van Gaal to find a way to get three points. Against a Bordeaux squad that has proven as workman-like in its Champions Legaue performances as in Ligue Un, that is a tall order for even the more talented team to accomplish.