David West has been on fire (AP)
In 20 years, the Hornets never have advanced past the second round of the NBA playoffs.
They couldn’t do it in Charlotte, where they blew a 3-2 lead on the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2001 Eastern Conference semifinals. They haven’t done it in New Orleans, where they lost a 3-2 advantage on the San Antonio Spurs in the same round last year.
But guess what? Despite their dismal performance down the stretch (three wins, six losses in April), of an already disappointing regular season, they have a real shot to make franchise history.
The Los Angeles Lakers, the only team in the West they definitely cannot beat in a seven-game series, are on the opposite half of the bracket.
The second-seeded Denver Nuggets, their first-round opponent, finished only five games ahead of them. The two teams were virtually even in the standings until Hornets center Tyson Chandler sat out 15 consecutive games near the end of the regular season with a sore ankle.
Potential semifinal opponents San Antonio and Dallas would have issues against New Orleans, too. The Mavericks, who lost to the Hornets 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs last year, have no answer for Chris Paul, who has abused Jason Kidd almost every time the two teams face each other. This year, Paul had 152 points and 53 assists in four games against Dallas.
The Spurs needed a buzzer-beating 3-point shot from Michael Finley to force overtime at home on Wednesday night even though they had much more incentive to win than the Hornets. Without that extra-session victory, San Antonio would have dropped to a No. 5 seed, losing home-court advantage in the first round for the first time since Tim Duncan’s rookie year.
Chandler played Wednesday for the first time since March 16, scoring 10 points before sitting out the second half. If he is healthy for the playoffs, the Hornets will be whole again.
Peja Stojakovic (balky back) has been in the lineup for the last eight games. James Posey (elbow), the first man off the bench and the Hornets’ best defender, played the last four. Paul is one of the top-five players in the NBA. David West has averaged 25 points in the last 15 games. Rasual Butler, though inconsistent, is a significant upgrade on Morris Peterson, the Hornets’ starting shooting guard last season.
Before you get too giddy about the favorable playoff draw, consider a few formidable hurdles.
Since the NBA went to a 16-team playoff in 1984, the No. 7 seed has upset the No. 2 seed only four times out of 50, and the last occurrence was 11 years ago, when the New York Knicks beat the Miami Heat. Number-2 seeds are 12 for 12 since the NBA expanded first-round series to best-of-seven from best-of-five in 2003.
The Hornets should be ready to play their best ball of the season, but so should the athletic Nuggets, who have won 13 of their last 14 home games. Emotions in the Mile-High City will exceed the altitude because Denver has not had home-court advantage in a series since 1988.
Carmelo Anthony, searching for his first playoff-series victory in his sixth season, knows this is his best chance. J.R. Smith, one of the players the Hornets traded to Chicago to get Chandler after the 2006 season, erupted for 45 points while draining a team-record 11 3-pointers against Sacramento on Monday. He would love to have a huge series against his former team, as would backup center Chris Andersen. The Birdman, a Hornet for the previous three seasons, grabbed 53 rebounds and blocked 25 shots in a recent six-game stretch.
Both teams will be devastated if they lose this series – the Hornets because they expected to contend for the NBA title when the season started; the Nuggets because they don’t want to blow a huge opportunity after entering the season as playoff long shots. Denver’s early-season trade for guard Chauncey Billups paid off beautifully, giving the Nuggets the proven winner they needed and a much better defender than Allen Iverson.
The series could be as wild as the two teams’ matchup on Jan. 3 in Denver, when the Hornets rallied from a 26-point second-half deficit to go ahead by 1 with a little more than minute left before the Nuggets scored the final six points to win 105-100.
If the Nuggets hold serve on Sunday and Wednesday, they’ll win. If the Hornets get a split in Denver, they’ll win.
On the rare occasions their regular starting five was healthy, the Hornets went 7-1 from Jan. 14 to March 1, and the only loss was at Cleveland. With that group intact for the first time since March 1, they were a second away from beating San Antonio on Wednesday.
That’s enough for me. In what should be the best first-round series, New Orleans will take down Denver in six games.
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