The 1983 Washington Redskins rolled through the regular season with an astronomical plus-43 turnover differential, by far the best in NFL history. They were plus-4 in two playoff games, advancing to the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Raiders, who were minus-13 in the regular season and added five turnovers in a postseason victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
Yet, the Raiders beat the Redskins 38-9, returning a Joe Theismann interception for a touchdown in the first half and forcing three turnovers.
Inexplicable turnarounds like that one are the reason you should not be overly concerned about the Saints’ recent spate of 13 turnovers in four games.
While turnover differential is the single-most reflective stat of a team’s past performance, it is the least predictive of future results because of its volatility. Bad defenses usually stay bad without a change in personnel. Poor offenses rarely morph into point-scoring machines without an upgrade in talent.
Turnover totals change dramatically from week to week and year to year with little rational explanation. A team can kill itself with mistakes in one game and slaughter its opponent thanks to a slew of errors in the next.
Consider: Miami and Tennessee, which had the NFL’s best turnover ratios in 2008, were on the negative side after nine games this year.
Common sense dictates the turnover-prone Saints should have lost at least two of their last four games, but this is an uncommon team. Times-Picayune columnist Jeff Duncan dug up a stat from the Elias Sports Bureau that New Orleans is the first franchise since the St. Louis Rams in 2003 to win four in a row while making 13 or more miscues.
Only four teams have more turnovers than the Saints’ 19 – Cleveland, Carolina, Oakland and Chicago. All four are below .500, and their combined record is 11-26.
The Saints, the only NFL team to win last Sunday while losing the turnover battle (3-1), are bucking that trend big time. They are a perfect 9-0 despite their imperfections. Think how imposing they could be if they limited their mistakes, as coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees vowed to do after the Saints barely escaped St. Louis.
Actually, we already know the answer. New Orleans never trailed when it committed only three turnovers in a four-week span against Philadelphia, Buffalo, the New York Jets and the New York Giants.
TO GET UPDATES WHEN A NEW STORY IS POSTED, CLICK ON SUBSCRIBE AT THE TOP OF THE SCREEN
Brees, who is responsible for 13 of the Saints’ 19 turnovers (nine interceptions, four fumbles), has put the ball on the ground eight times, one off his career high. His interception percentage (3.1) is his highest since 2003 in San Diego.
He’s also having another MVP-caliber season, so the odds favor him fixing the problem.
Payton’s first three Saints teams were minus-four, minus-seven and minus-four in turnover differential. This year, New Orleans is plus-six despite its recent struggles thanks to a ball-hawking defense that has a league-best 25 takeaways.
Positive or negative, that regular-season stat won’t matter once the playoffs start.
Last year, Miami and the New York Giants tied an NFL record for fewest turnovers with 13 during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Dolphins gave the ball away five times while losing 27-9 to Baltimore, and the Giants coughed it up three times in a 23-11 loss to Philadelphia.
If you’re the worrying type, it’s OK to lament the Saints’ increasingly shoddy tackling or the body blows the secondary has received with injuries.
But there’s little sense getting bent out of shape over turnovers that have not even cost the Saints a game. They have no bearing on what will happen the rest of the way.
SEE ALSO: Saints notebook after win over Rams
: Putting the 9-0 start in perspective
FOR MORE INFO: Go to SaintsReport.com and BlackandGold.com for active message boards and all the latest news on the Saints.
Comments