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Yao Ming may be wearing a suit on the bench again next year.
When you are a basketball team, it's never good news when your franchise player is out for the season. Especially when the season is still more than four months away.
But that appears to be the case for the Rockets and Yao Ming, who reportedly could miss next season, and in fact, his career might be in jeopardy.
The Rockets are not a championship contender without Yao Ming. They might not be a playoff team.
But there is good news amid the depression.
If Yao is indeed done, the timing could not be better for the Rockets to adjust on the fly and field a legitimate playoff team next season.
Obviously, it's early. Nothing official has been announced regarding Yao's prognosis. Doctor's tend to throw out worst-case scenarios, often to protect themselves. So Yao might not be done and may yet play next season.
But if he is done, the Rockets have two positives. Number one, they haven't committed to extending Yao's deal yet. It expires after next season, but Yao has a player option for 2011. The Rockets had been discussing a five-year extension. Now they can back off those talks. Yao's recurring foot problems are a concern; this allows the Rockets to wait at least one more year and probably two to make a permanent decision on Yao.
More importantly, the Rockets are positioned to make moves to reshape the roster.
Tracy McGrady's expiring contract will have a lot of value. GM Daryl Morey will be able to deal it to acquire another big-ticket player. In addition, if Yao is out, the Rockets can used a percentage of his contract to bring in another player. Since Yao is scheduled to make $18 million next season, that could be as much as $9 million for another player.
So the Rockets could essentially pick up two quality players, perhaps even one franchise player, with the money available from McGrady and Yao next season -- and still have the hope of getting Yao back at some point.
In addition, many teams are in economic crunches and will sell off good players with big contracts simply to get the payroll under control. (The Spurs have already taken advantage of that by poaching Richard Jefferson for nothing).
The Rockets -- as always -- will be buyers, not sellers.
Some possibilities:
1) Amare Stoudamire. The Suns are close to dealing him to Golden State, but the Warriors' reluctance to add Stephen Curry to the deal might re-open the door for the Rockets. Stoudamire might not have been a great fit next to Yao -- the Shaq-Stoudamire didn't really work, either -- but as a replacement, he might be terrific fit next to Luis Scola. He is a long, lean, inside presence that would work in the Adelman offense. The Rockets would have to give up McGrady, and likely Carl Landry and perhaps Aaron Brooks in the deal and take back Leander Barbosa's contract. This move alone would not put the Rockets over the top, but a key free agent addition using some of the Yao money -- a player like Hedo Turkoglu, for instance -- could get the Rockets right back in the mix. A lineup of Stoudamire, Barbosa, Shane Battier, Ron Artest and Luis Scola would be very competitive. Re-signing Artest would be critical, and some more depth would be required, but the Rockets would still be a force in the Western Conference.
2) Sit back and wait, then get Chris Bosh. We have long been a proponent of acquiring Bosh, another long, lean athletic inside player who has a tremendous upside and is the kind of player you want to build around.
Bosh may yet re-sign in Toronto, but if the Raptors feel they can't sign him, they could take on McGrady's contract, perhaps Scola or Landry in return and and get a decent young player, some cap relief and room to rebuilt their team. The Rockets might have to scuffle along for a few months next season with the current roster and maybe 1-2 small additions, but the addition of Bosh would make them instantly better, and Bosh is the kind of player you want to commit to longterm. You would have a shot at having both Yao and Bosh under contract for 2011, which would be interesting.
3) Pick up a so-so big man in free agency and hope for the best. Essentially stay the course with the current crew, get someone to fill in and hope Yao and or McGrady return. Rasheed Wallace, perhaps Antonio McDyess. Mehmet Okur might opt out of his deal in Utah. You ride it out with your current roster, plus some tweaks, then hope Yao or McGrady comes back. If not, you wind up with a decent draft pick and lots of cap room after the 2010 season. The Rockets won't be LeBron James players, but Houston is a very attractive market for free agents, and owner Les Alexander isn't afraid to spend money or take big swings. So the Rockets might have to take a step back in 2010, and reload for 2011, perhaps with Yao on the roster.
4) Start completely over. Don't resign Artest. Trade Shane Battier. Build around Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola. Acquire a Ricky Rubio type and rebuild the roster for 2-3 years down the road. This is probably the least appealing for fans, as the Rockets would have to sink down to Timberwolves depths for a year or two before recovering.
Knowing Morey and Alexander, No. 4 seems unlikely. Nos. 2 and 3 seem likely. No. 1 is a possibility, with another player if not Stoudamire.
Either way, Yao's potential loss is devastating, but it could have been worse. Imagine if the Rockets had already traded McGrady for a player who was supposed to fit with Yao. Or if Yao had already been extended, and his career is over.
If Yao is indeed out for the season, there is a bright side. The timing is good. And the Rockets have options.
If nothing else, it will be fun to see what they do with them.
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Jerome Solomon says the Yao situation is far from over.
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David Hartnett also weighs in on Yao.
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Alan Burge weighs in on why rookie signings are dragging.
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Nate Griffin says watch out for ants.
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