Moneyball: Coming soon to a ballpark near you?

The lineup taking the field in 2010 could look very different to Tiger fans. (AP/Photo)

The Detroit Tigers have been on a spending spree since their 2006 trip to the World Series. They owned the fifth highest payroll in the Major Leagues in 2009, but that’s all about to change.

Sources are reporting Detroit has put its biggest and best stars on the open market. Almost everyone on the roster is attainable for the right price. Of course, its high prices that have put the Tigers in this position in the first place.

Bad contracts and overspending have put the team in a tough spot. They had a $119,160,146 million payroll at the end of ’09, and it’s only that low because the team was able to dump the contract of Gary Sheffield. They have $29.5 million per season locked up in Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson. That’s over 25% of the payroll invested in three players who didn’t contribute a thing to the club. With the injuries to Bonderman, inconsistencies of Robertson and the fact that Willis is completely useless, none of the men should be counted on to contribute anything moving forward.

Combine that with Magglio Ordonez ($18,571,956) and Carlos Guillen ($10 million), two men with limited power who should be designated hitters yet are penciled in as the starting right and left fielders in ‘10, and the Tigers have 50% of their payroll endowed in five players who in no way can be considered the cornerstone of a successful franchise.

Brandon Inge has proven he’s as reliable defensively as anyone that plays his position, but it’s hard to imagine a world where a player who hits .230 deserves a $6.3 million a year contract. It's bad contracts like these that have put the Tigers in this spot, forcing them to cut ties with players who did contribute this past season.

Detroit will definitely not offer contracts to free-agents Jarrod Washburn ($9.85 million in ‘09), Aubrey Huff ($8 million) and Adam Everett ($1 million). Reserve outfielder Marcus Thames and his $2.275 million contract has already been released and with the way the team is planning their decent down the payroll ranks it’s unlikely they will attempt to resign setup man Brandon Lyon ($4.25 million) or closer Fernando Rodney ($2.7 million) whose contracts will most likely rise following solid ’09 campaigns.

It’s also unclear what the team will do with second baseman Placido Polanco. Polanco has been Detroit’s most consistent hitter over the past five seasons. Other than Miguel Cabrera, he’s probably the best offensive player on the team. He’s not flashy, but he is an exceptional table setter for the middle of the lineup. He’s a career .303 hitter and is terrific at situational batting. He’ll do whatever the team needs at any moment. Move runners along, drive the ball the opposite way or lay down a bunt, whatever is called for Polanco can do. He also won his second Gold Glove this past season making himself that much more valuable on the open market.

Polanco made a modest $4.6 million this past season, but that figure will most certainly go up, especially with high-spending teams like the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers just to name a few needing a player of Polanco’s caliber. With Scott Sizemore, the Tigers’ stud second base prospect ready for his shot, it now looks as though Polanco won’t be in Detroit in 2010.

Free agency is not the only factor that will be changing the Tigers roster heading into next season. Reports have surfaced that starting pitcher Edwin Jackson, catcher Gerald Laird, centerfielder Curtis Granderson and even slugger Miguel Cabrera are available via trade for the right price.

Jackson can be had because of his possible huge jump in salary for ’10 resulting from his arbitration. Laird makes $2.8 million, minimal by today’s standards, but for a player who batted.225, that’s an awful lot to shell out, so it won’t hurt as much to include him in deals, plus Alex Avila needs to get a full season of at bats to show if last season’s outbreak was a fluke or not. Jackson and Laird together could return some nice prospects to Detroit if there is a team willing to deal for them.
 

Granderson is the player that most Tiger fans fear to see leave the most. He is in the prime of his career at 28 years of age. And although he is coming off a disappointing season in terms of batting average, his power numbers increased and his defense in centerfield is excellent on a team with weak corner outfielders. However his inability to hit left-handed pitching was quite disturbing and his strikeouts continue to be a negative factor to his game. But there is something about Granderson that is so endearing to the fans. He’s a high character guy who is never in trouble off the field and seems to be great in the clubhouse. But unfortunately other than Cabrera he would be the player teams would covet, so if Detroit is seriously considering a fire sale his name has to be mentioned.

There is no doubt Granderson could get some top-rated prospects in return. Rumors have the Yankees at the front of the line for Curtis’ services. If that is the case, surely Detroit would have to get centerfield prospect Austin Jackson in return, and possibly one or more of New York’s young pitchers such as Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain. For Granderson, I’d think the Tigers would have to get at least Jackson and Hughes in return, probably more.

Of course it was just today that Cabrera’s name was entered into the discussion. The Boston Red Sox appear very interested in the big first sacker and the names being thought of in return are top prospects Lars Anderson (first base) and Clay Buchholz (starting pitcher) along with other players yet to be determined. Should Detroit actually trade Cabrera for these two players plus probably another two players not yet mentioned, it may open up the space needed to keep a player like Jackson or Granderson.

These moves are obviously being considered because of the monster contract Justin Verlander will garner once he hits free agency in 2011. Detroit would like to lock up their ace before that ever happens, but with the contracts being handed out throughout the league for number one starting pitchers these days, JV would certainly expect something in the $19-20 million range per season. There is no way Detroit will let Verlander get away as he and Rick Porcello should form as powerful a 1-2 punch as there will be in the American League for a long time.

Ryan Perry could morph into a great closer with some more seasoning over the next year or two. His ability to hit triple digits and blow opposing batters away is exactly what a team wants in the ninth inning. He needs to work on his control and first pitch strikes before he can be counted on in that role, but there is no doubt he has the stuff and makeup to be a dominant closer.

Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane invented moneyball, the theory of building a team around pitching and constantly looking for inexpensive talent in the other areas. That theory is put in place because Beane’s hands are tied due to an owner who doesn’t hand out big contracts or money to high-priced players. It often results in the Oakland trading away their best players once they are ready for a salary increase.

Detroit is a little different. Owner Mike Ilitch has proven he will spend money and give the big-time contract, but to whom those contracts are given is what needs to be reevaluated.

Ilitch was so excited following the magic of 2006 that he emptied the bankbook foolishly for aging players who were on the downside of their careers or young players who had not yet shown the consistency year in and year out to warrant long-term contracts. Other teams do it all the time, but they are usually wealthy enough to eat their losses and move forward. The Yankees have handed out way more bad contracts over the years than the Tigers. Players like Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano and Kevin Brown are just a few. The difference is New York can afford to make bad decisions, the Tigers cannot. So essentially Ilitch has hit the reset button and is starting over.

He is going to try and do it right this time. Build around young starting pitching and hand out contracts to younger players who can help this team for more than just a year or two. If all these rumors are true and the Tigers do in fact deal away all the players mentioned above for top-notch prospects, it will likely be a number of years before this team is in position to contend again, but unfortunately that’s the position they’ve put themselves in.

We saw general manager Dave Dombrowski turn around the disaster that was 2003 in just three seasons when he first arrived, the real question is can he do it again? Time will tell.
 

For a list of the Tigers' 2009 payroll click here.

For more info: Check out Detroit Tigers Examiner Randall Castro