It’s probably easier to predict the spring time weather in Colorado that to forecast what’s ahead for the Denver Nuggets, but as we sit here near the end of March, it appears that Denver has the inside lane in the race to the NBA’s Northwest Division title…and maybe more.
After a sloppy and maddening sort-of rout against hapless Golden State on Saturday night, the Nuggets sit atop the division with a 48-26 record. With eight regular-season games remaining, including five at home, Denver would seem a good bet to get to 53 or even 54 wins, which by any measure is a great season. If you predict (I know, a scary thing when you’re talking about the Nuggets) losses in LA against the Lakers and on the road in Portland, you can see them winning the other six – the five home games (vs. the Knicks, Jazz, Clippers, Oklahoma City and Sacramento) plus a road game at Minnesota. That would equal 54 wins.
Can rivals Utah or Portland match that total? Doubtful at this point. Start with the Jazz. Utah has 45 wins as of this morning. They have 10 games left. They’d need to win eight of those to reach 53 wins. Six of their remaining games are on the road – where they’ve been very poor all season. All four home games will be wins for the Jazz – the Knicks, Minnesota, Golden State and the Clippers. But that means they need to win four times in six road games against Portland, Denver, New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio and the Lakers. Not going to happen.
As for the Blazers, they have 46 wins and nine games left. They’d need to win seven of those nine to reach 53, and their schedule includes five road tilts, including games at Houston and San Antonio. Portland also plays the Lakers and the Nuggets at home. Portland looks a good bet to win five and maybe six more, meaning they’d finish with 51 or 52 wins. Is it possible that the last regular season game between the Nuggets and Blazers in Portland will have title implications? Maybe…but not likely. Not if the Nuggets take care of business against the least challenging of the three remaining schedules. It’s more likely that final game will have meaning to Denver’s play-off positioning against Houston and San Antonio.
The Spurs are the proven commodity to be sure. Once the play-offs start, they're just as good a bet to reach the NBA finals as the front running Lakers. Still, San Antonio has work left to do in the regular season if they want to hold on to the number two seed. The Spurs, Nuggets and Rockets all have 48 wins right now – Denver and Houston with identical records, while San Antonio has two fewer losses. Those extra two games could be an advantage to the Spurs, who you could see winning as many as eight of their final 10. While six of those are on the road, trips to Sacramento, Golden State and Oklahoma City aren’t real daunting. There are also home games with the Thunder, Portland and Utah, and two winnable games with New Orleans.
The Rockets have a tougher path. Of their final eight games, five are on the road, including games at Phoenix, the Lakers and Dallas. Home games with Orlando, Portland and New Orleans are not gimmes, either.
So if you dare forecast a likely outcome, you could see the Nuggets closing strong enough to lock up the Northwest Division and the number three seed in the play-offs. That would earn them the all-important home court advantage in what would likely be a first round match up with Utah or possibly New Orleans.
Could this be the year the Nuggets finally make it out of the first round? Home court would help immensely of course, but nothing’s for certain, especially when you’re predicting the results for this unpredictable team.
(AP Photo of Denver's Renaldo Balkman)
For more info: www.nuggets.com, www.examiner.com/x-841-Denver-Nuggets-Examiner
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