U.S. Supreme Court to hear Chicago gun case McDonald v. Chicago
A united front . . . at the photo session.
- A united front . . . at the photo session.
- Associate Justice Antonin Scalia wrote the majority opinion in Heller v. D.C.
He's a certain vote for incorporation, but his more challenging role will be recruiting at least one Justice who is not such a staunch supporter of the 2nd Amendment to admit that it should be incorporated. 1-0 McDonald
- Earlier this year, some observers thought that Clarence Thomas might be a surprise vote in this case because of his perceived hostility to incorporation in general. That opinion doesn't seem to hold up well to scrutiny, however. 2-0 McDonald.
- Chief Justice John Roberts is known to agree strongly with the individual's right to keep and bear arms, seeing it as a historically proven part of the Bill of Rights. 3-0 McDonald
- Anti-gun activists were so alarmed by Samuel Alito, Jr. that they tried to hang him with the nickname "Machine Gun Sammy" during his confirmation hearings.
4-0 McDonald
- Anthony Kennedy once again finds himself the universal adapter and thus the most sought-after vote. The Scalia majority consider Kennedy the only liberal justice who is likely to side with them--as he did in joining the majority in Heller v. D.C.
5-0 McDonald
- John Paul Stevens wrote the dissent in Heller v. D.C., and did an admirable job considering the facts he had to work with. It's worth noting that Stevens' dissent in that case began by agreeing that the 2nd Amendment protected an individual right to keep and bear arms before trying to explain how D.C.'s complete ban on functioning guns could be reconciled with that position.
5-1 McDonald
- Sonia Sotomayor is the newest and currently most controversial Associate Justice. She is also the only Justice who has recently ruled on the question before the court, though not necessarily on the same reasoning. As a 3rd District Appellate Judge, she could punt the issue to the Supreme Court. On the court, she's likely to vote against incorporation no matter what--but surprises happen every day. Still predicting 5-2 McDonald.
- Ruth Bader Ginsburg's health problems are well known, but are not expected to keep her from hearing or deciding the McDonald case unless they unexpectedly worsen. She should be a reliable anti-gun vote even when other issues are involved.
5-3 McDonald
- Associate Justice Steven Breyer is not expected to break with the anti-gun side even if incorporation is at stake.
5-4 McDonald
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