Welcome Instapundit readers! Thanks to Glenn for the link.
Virginia has had a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion for the past 8 years. And last November, Obama turned the state blue for the first time in more than 40 years. And all the world loves a Democrat . . . right?
Perhaps not.
Virginia has statewide elections in off-years and will elect a new governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in November. With the elections taking place the year after the presidential election, Virginia is a natural bellwether for how the prevailing president and his party are doing during the first year of his term.
So if the Democrats are doing such a great job in Washington, why is a lowly Republican leading all Democrat challengers in the Old Dominion?
Rassmussen says the trend since December has been all in the Republican's direction.
Republican Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell has a three-to-nine point lead against three hopefuls for the Democratic nomination in this year’s closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial contest.
McDonnell, who announced this week that he will step down from his post on February 20 to campaign full-time for governor, bested only one of the three Democrats in early December.
Now, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows the lone Republican gubernatorial candidate topping his best-known opponent, Terry McAuliffe, by seven points, 42% to 35%. In December, he held a five-point edge over McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton confidant, major Democratic fund-raiser and former national party chairman.
McDonnell is even further ahead of Rep. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County – 39% to 30%. The two men were tied two months ago.
Brian J. Moran, a former state delegate from Alexandria, led McDonnell by four points in the earlier survey but now trails by three, 39% to 36%.
Virginia Democrats will pick among the three contenders for [the governor's job] in a June primary.
For now, McAuliffe has slightly better favorables than Moran among Democratic voters, with Deeds fairly close behind. But McAuliffe’s unfavorables also are the highest among the three Democrats.
Terry McAuliffe dropped a fly in the ointment for the Democrats when he announced his run for the office. It will be interesting to see if Bill Clinton's Lincoln Bedroom Hotelier and White House Barista excites Virginia Democrats as much as he thinks he will.
The other election that might give an indication of how tarnished the Democrats may be, was the one held this week for the Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. The Republican, Pat Herrity, ran hard on fiscal and economic conservatism and lost to the Democrat by 1 point. The margin of the race is significant because Fairfax County is a deep blue, Obama-loving stronghold. Herrity should have been demolished. But he wasn't.
When do the Democrats start to worry?
Local Virginia election showing Obama backlash?
White House hotelier and barista Terry McAuliffe to run for Virginia governor
Comments
There was another election: in Maine, where a democratic state legislator was appointed Attorney General and resigned before even being sworn in. This district has been in Dem hands at least since 2002 (I didn't look any further back, so it's possibly more) and was won by a Republican.
I'm an Independent, having voted for around the same amount of Repubs as I do Dems. But to answer the question of why McDonnell is leading, he is clearly the best suited to be governor. I really hope he wins.
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