This Tuesday, there will be several important elections that will be a strong indicator of both the country’s mood and the satisfaction with the Obama Administration. There are two gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, two congressional special elections in California and New York, a major mayoral election in New York City, and a gay marriage ballot initiative in Maine. One of the special elections in California will clearly go to the Democrats and Michael Bloomberg will be elected to a third term as mayor of New York. Polling shows that the gay marriage initiative in Maine is essentially tied, although it is expected to pass in this reliably blue state. The crucial elections to watch are the two races for governor and the congressional election in New York
All experts are predicting that Bob McDonnell, the Republican former Attorney General of Virginia, will beat Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds on Tuesday. Polls in recent days show McDonnell with a double digit lead heading into the final stretch. Virginia is an important state to watch because of the fact that Democrats have made significant gains in the state in recent years, President Obama carried it in November, and the outgoing governor is both a Democrat and the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee. With Virginia being a swing state and the fact the President Obama has campaigned for the Democrat, this does not bode well for the Democrats.
New Jersey will come down to the wire. Incumbent Governor Jon Corzine (D) is tied with Republican Chris Christie, with Independent Chris Daggett getting north of 10% of the vote in polls. New Jersey is the bluest of the blue states and the fact that the governor’s race is at all competitive is shocking. Corzine is highly unpopular due to high taxes and statewide corruption. This election is centered more on local issues than others, but President Obama is making this his last stand out of the elections on Tuesday. He will be appearing today at a rally with Corzine and the Democrats have invested a great deal of money in this horse race.
The special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district has gotten interesting over the weekend. Originally the race was between Democrat Bill Owens, Republican Dede Scozzafava and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. On Saturday, Scozzafava dropped out of the race, leaving the Democrat and the Conservative Party candidate. Polling shows that Hoffman is pulling away, which sends a clear signal to both parties in this upstate New York district. Traditionally this has been a Republican district, but last year President Obama won the district.
I am expecting that McDonnell and Hoffman will both win, and I cannot even begin to guess how New Jersey will turn out. If Christie wins, that will be a political earthquake felt across the country. If Corzine wins by less than 5 points, this should still be considered a victory for Republicans as this state is extremely Democratic. These elections may very well serve as a shot across the bow of both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Republicans should realize that all three of the GOP candidates are conservative and are in a position to win. Running moderates or Republicans who are liberal on certain issues is not appealing to voters, so this should be a lesson to Republican candidates next year. For Democrats, this should be a sign that voters in key area do not like what they are seeing. Moderate, common sense Democrats, may very well abandon the radical liberal causes that are being taken up in Congress in light of the election results. America is not happy with the policies of President Obama or the Democrats in Congress. Many Democrats will probably not get the message, although they certainly will next year.
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