Strength of independent candidates indicates GOP missing opportunity

A recently released Gallup poll would seem to hold promise for the GOP: Americans are becoming more conservative both in self identification and on specific issues. Self-identified 'conservatives', tied with 'moderates' and 15 points ahead of 'liberals' a year ago, now lead 'moderates' by 4 points and 'liberals' by 20. More importantly, over the past year the populace shifted towards conservative positions such as 'reducing regulation on business and industry' (38% to 45%), 'less influence for labor unions' (32% to 42%), 'opposing stricter regulations on firearms' (49% to 55%), and 'reducing immigration' (39% to 50%).

Many Republican-leaning pundits see this shift, combined with declining approval numbers for Barack Obama, as a guarantee of electoral success in 2010. Leading talk show host Rush Limbaugh predicted on his radio show October 28 “there's going to be an uprising in 2010. I even think it's going to happen if we have nothing to vote for...I think there's going to be an uprising of people voting against the Democrat Party like they can't believe.”

However, in 2 of the 3 most watched electoral races this year, the GOP stands a good chance of losing due to the strength of independent candidates, in addition to not even fielding a candidate in the New York City mayoral race.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie held a wide lead earlier this year due to statewide dissatisfaction with the incumbent Democratic Governor, former Goldman Sachs executive Jon Corzine. However, the recent polls have tended to favor reelection for the Democrat as the anti-Corzine vote has been siphoned away by independent candidate Chris Daggett, who has criticized the GOP candidate in debates on traditional Republican issues such as lowering property taxes.

The situation is even worse for the GOP in a Congressional race in upstate New York. In a district that has elected Republicans since 1871 the Republican candidate appears headed for a last place finish behind the Democrat and a 'third-party' candidate. As in New Jersey, the 'third party' candidate has gained support by running on positions traditionally advocated by Republicans. As the Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, puts it, he “was fed up with the out-of-control spending, taxes, government regulations on us and business,” and “thought somebody had to step up and do something about it." Where is the Republican candidate in all this? Calling the cops when a reporter from the Weekly Standard magazine, normally a stalwart GOP supporter, dares to ask her questions!

In New York City, former Republican-turned-independent Michael Bloomberg is expected to coast to reelection. The only significant race this year in which the Republican is a clear favorite is in Virginia, where the race lacks any independent candidates.

The message to the GOP is clear: Republicans can not rely on dissatisfaction with the Obama administration and far-left policies and expect to coast to electoral gains in 2010. This is especially important in Ohio, which has turned from a Republican dominated state to a Democratic leaning one in the past two election cycles. The GOP statewide and nationwide must take care to select candidates who can appeal to both their traditional constituencies and those who are fed up with 'politics as usual,' and are strongly committed to fiscal responsibility, the free market, and lowering tax and regulatory burdens, or they risk blowing a golden opportunity.