.jpg)
The Goatman gives you all. Detail of a painting by Robert Shillady. Photo author.
While BART maintains the proposed $6.00 fare was a conservative estimate, when they hired Wilbur Smith Associates to update ridership projections, both a $5.00 and $6.00 fare were modeled (none lower). Wilbur Smith, to their credit, did an excellent analysis of Oakland Airport passenger projections, offering a low, medium and high series, while carefully documenting many airline’s strategic withdrawals from Oakland.
The report demonstrated a rider indifference to the higher fare, so we can expect that $6.00 will be the final number. The reason for this can be found in the manner that the final builder/operator will be paid. BART is apparently on the hook for the operating costs of the connector, so income received will be paid to the operator on a 20 year contract.
The higher patronage results in a higher difference between what BART receives and what the operator charges. According to the Wilbur Smith numbers (found at http://www.bart.gov/docs/oac/Final%20OAC%20Ridership%20Report%2005%2005%2009.pdf), the $6.00 fare results in $6.3 million, while $5.00 results in $5.2 million revenues in 2014. Rough numbers talked about by industry sources who wish not to be identified, place the operating contract at around $5.0 million a year for twenty years. BART has yet to announce the winning bidder or the terms.
The higher difference allows BART to pocket the extra. Since BART took back control of the failed (by riders, cost or any yardstick that might be handy) San Francisco International Airport (SFO) extension in 2007 from San Mateo County, we have seen them raise the airport surcharge per ticket from $1.50 per person to $4.00. SFO responded by operating a free shuttle bus for employees from Millbrae, after failing to achieve an employee discount.
Note that BART to SFO was planned to reduce emissions from autos and buses, just as the OAC is purported to do. Lower-wage airport workers at Oakland will not be using the new airport connector. In fact, the Wilbur Smith report concentrates on airline passengers, ignoring workers and tourists out for a Disney thrill ride at $1.88 a mile. By comparison, the Napa Valley Wine Train only charges $1.38 a mile for its Silverado Class service.
Even at $5.00 a head, workers can not afford to use this connection. In all likelihood, Oakland, AC Transit and/or the Airport will have to step to the plate to fund service along the Hegenberger Corridor by bus at a reasonable price. Otherwise those employees will be forced to drive. The $500 million OAC is helping the environment and service along Hegenberger in what way?
There appears to be a very serious problem with expensive transit projects that do not help. One should question how and why we continue to fund nonsense projects for mega millions, when the need for serious projects is so great. This sort of funding will not last forever and the legacy will not be proud, as we realize how much money was wasted on consultant/construction/transit projects with political appeal and little practical value.
Comments