How the heck could the census be controversial?

If you had blinked you may have missed it.  But Republican Senator Judd Gregg was, very briefly, Barack Obama's pick to head the U.S. Commerce Department.  That nomination came crashing down last week when Sen. Gregg withdrew his name, using the old standby, "irreconcilable differences", as the reason.  Some analysts had conjectured Mr. Gregg bailed after doing some soul searching about his willingness to support the president's stimulus referendum, but as the stimulus bill size and likely scope was well known before the senator was even nominated that didn't seem a plausible excuse for withdrawing.

Still more analysts were certain it was a result of the 2010 census and who would have ultimate management responsiblities for it's conduct.  Normally the census is under the auspices of the Commerce Department, but the Obama Administration had signaled the upcoming census would be getting some added attention and oversight from the White House.  Mr. Gregg denied the census was any big deal, though it didn't discourage some from insisting the census was the raison d'etre for Gregg's withdrawal.

(My own theory?  I suspect Sen. Gregg was muscled by the GOP to abandon.  The other Republicans nominated by President Obama for cabinet positions (Gates, LaHood) snuck in under the wire, before the Rush Limbaugh "make Obama fail" strategy kicked into full effect.  Mr. Gregg got the memo late and, ultimately, abided.  He scheduled a news conference on Thursday afternoon just prior to the nightly news (as opposed to late Friday afternoon) and minutes before Mr. Obama was scheduled to make a major address, thereby embarrassing the president.   And the senator also announces, at the same news conference, he will not be running for re-election in 2010.  By all accounts, Sen. Gregg is a principled, stand up guy.  I reckon he was repulsed by the whole thing and wanted no more part of it.)

So, to make a long story even longer; what's the deal with the census and why do Democrats and Republicans battle about who will manage counting the population and compiling its demographics?

Some background first.  The census is mandated by the Constitution to occur every ten years.  The census figures are based on the number of persons living in residential structures.  The conduct of the census has changed over the last two hundred years, from just counting heads of households to including other household members to including slaves and American Indians.  The first nine censuses weren't managed by the Executive Branch but, rather, the Judicial.

Now, counting 300 million people, as you might expect, is kinda difficult. 

In the 1990 census, about five million people were missed as the (U.S. Census) Bureau relies on citizens to complete and return questionnaires through the mail. The percentage of forms returned has dropped from 78 percent in 1970 to 65 percent in 1990. This decline caused the 1990 census to be less accurate than any before. Due to the undercount, composed mainly of hard to reach population such as minorities and homeless people, states with large underserved populations receive smaller proportions of federal funding for programs.

Statistical sampling is much more accurate than attempts at an actual count. With random samples, the probability of error can be mathematically determined based on the number sampled. (Link)

Not surprisingly, quite a few folks don't return the census questions and are even less likely to go answer the door when a government guy in a suit comes knocking.  And that reticence to mail back the forms and answer the door is more prevalent in urban areas with high minority and immigrant populations.  In other words, folks who would most likely be Democrats.

And since populations determine congressional districts and, in turn, congressional seats, Republicans aren't particularly enthusiastic about a census process that counts all those potential Democrats.  As Ezra Klein puts it, "It's the equivalent of inventing more Republicans, or at least hiding a lot of Democrats."

In addition to undercounting the 1990 census by five to eight million people, it also double counted white Americans by four million.  In case you think that's no big deal, House Republicans (led by Tom DeLay) led a redistricting crusade in Texas following the 2000 census and managed to gather six more GOP seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

That's why the boring old census is controversial.