Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, with President Obama
There has not been an official announcement yet, but his aides say that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will not run for a new term in Palestinian Authority elections slated for January.
Frankly, this isn't much of a surprise. But is it good for the Palestinians? Andrew E. Mathis
First, let's look at Abbas's record. A co-founder of the Fatah faction of the PLO, Abbas first made his name within the Palestinian leadership under the nom de guerre Abu Mazen and became internationally known as the chief negotiator, along with his Israeli counterpart Yossi Beilin, in what was then called Oslo II — the next step in the Oslo peace process that was derailed by the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin and then the election of Binyamin Netanyahu as prime minister the following year.
Abbas had served as the first Palestinian prime minister, having been appointed in 2003 by then President Yasir Arafat. Appointed in March, Abbas stepped down in September, citing "Israel's unwillingness to implement its road map commitments and to undertake any constructive measures," as well as the failure of the George W. Bush administration to exert pressure on the Israeli government of Ariel Sharon to implement changes in its policies.
He also cited "lack of support for the government's policies; harsh and dangerous domestic incitement against the government and the obstruction of its functions, and unjustified accusations that the government and the prime minister had the motive of either having control over everything or nothing."
It seemed obvious at the time that Arafat was holding Abbas back from any real power, and Abbas was also concerned about inter-factional violence among different Palestinian national liberation groups, including Hamas.
Well, here we are six years later and none of this has changed. Not only is Abbas facing an intransigent Israeli government, but the U.S. under President Obama is not pushing Israel hard enough, and with the Palestinian Authority coming under the control of Hamas and the subsequent Fatah-Hamas Civil War that followed have badly hurt Abbas and Fatah.
So not such a great record for Abbas. Perhaps new blood is a good thing. But who's waiting in the wings? Fatah leadership is likely to stay with the old guard of the organization; possible candidates include Ahmed Qurei, who has served as prime minister in the past; Nabil Shaath, who oversaw a caretaker government; Rawhi Fattouh, a former speaker of the Palestinian parliament and interim president; and Saeb Erekat, who has been a chief negotiator for the Palestinians over the last decade. If Fatah goes for a candidate from the younger generation, the likeliest candidate would be former Fatah head in Gaza Mohammed Dahlan.
Hamas has said that it will not field a candidate; in fact, they have warned Gazans that anyone participating in the election will face violent consequences.
There is only one third-party declared candidate at this time: Mohamed Abutair, of Change for Peace in Palestine. But Abutair and his party are both virtual unknowns. The likelihood of there being any electoral success from this party is very small.
It is perhaps possible that the current Palestinian prime minister in the West Bank, Salam Fayyad, may run. He's a member of the Third Way political party. However, since Third Way polled so badly in the January 2006 elections (2.41% of the popular vote), a higher-profile member of the party, e.g., Hanan Ashrawi, could make a realistic run.
My guess is that an old-guard Fatah member will be the next Palestinian president. Ahmed Qurei will probably be the one tapped to run. And will he be successful? As long as the challenges remain the same as they were in 2003 and are now, then the answer is no.
Comments
Who cares?
"But Abutair and his party are both virtual unknowns. The likelihood of there being any electoral success from this party is very small." But there is more here than meets the eye, Andrew...
You mention Oslo II and the fact that Abbas was involved. What isn't common knowledge, however, is that Mohamed Abutair was in fact one of Arafat's Senior Advisors at those talks. He was seen as a close confidant of Arafat right up to his death - and many disillusioned (former?) Fatah supporters yearn for the link with Arafat to be re-established in a way that Abbas has failed to do.
Add to this the fact that Abutair has strong links not only with Fatah, but also with both Hamas and Israel and you begin to see that he might just be the 'dark horse' in this Election.
Here's a scenario - a section of existing Fatah supporters decide to vote instead for the candidate they see as 'a young Arafat' - then Hamas decides to support Abutair as their 'proxy' candidate. Result? - President Abutair...
@Guy From Gaza: I hope you're right. Abutair looks like a good candidate -- a man who could finally do some good.
Inshallah, young Andrew, Inshallah...
...there is more than meets the eye when it comes to Abutair its more a case of skeletons in the closet. Abbas may have been involved in the Oslo II taks but, I very much doubt that Abutair played any instrumental role. The good thing for Abutair is that he can make this claims because the dead can't speak unfortunately for him individuals that are alive can. I can tell you for a fact now that Abutair's campaign for change is based on a web of deceit. The 'change for peace palestine' was in fact typed by myself and I lifted the entire thing from a booklet that I had in kicking around in my bedroom on palestine. There are some political ideas that have been lifted off the conservative party website in the UK an a canadian electoral candidate which I google searched. The whole thing took me 14 hours to type up, Butair then took it to a website designer in Cambridge contacted a government PR agency in the UK and an electoral candidate was born! The whole thing is a joke..and the fact that he is playing this game on international platform is a bigger joke. If individuals delve deeper into Abutair's past they will discover that he is a professional fraudster that has conned a number of individuals in both the UK and abroad for substantial amounts of money. He lives his life by scamming innocent individuals of their fortune and betraying their trust. Currently Abutair, is wanted internationally although no warrant has been issued for his arrest. He is apparently trained as an commerical airline pilot however for some unbeknown reason the CAA have blocked his license. Abutair has no moral compass or concious if these are the prerequesite for an electoral candidate than he is more than qualified for the role. However, my understanding of anyone who wants to work in the political remit needs to be whiter than white and with an unquestionable past. Will he continue as his candidacy who knows? One thing for sure is that if he wants to have a future in politics he will have to address his past first!
Talk about these things is not surprising in every country in the world can any of the finds in himself the ability to lead his people and to fulfill its national and popular that on his way to the presidency if his party is small or large is not something necessary to the extent that this character is capable in all respects to such This seemed good that Muhammad was aboutir able to this is welcome and thus most of the Palestinian leadership would be unable to exclude anyone has seen in himself the right man in the right place and the spoilers, or who question the credibility of any person, they can not only create confusion and to disperse the people and we Palestinians have our teams split the last Section us everything we want a strong leader who heals my reunion and eliminate the chaos in the circle among Palestinian factions
Hana Ahmed not really sure if this was a limp attempt to defend Abutair as your english isn't coming across very well. All I will say is that Abutair deceived a number of individuals into believing that he was or would be a legitimate candidate for this palestinian presidential elections. My intention isn't to create confusion but, actually to give you an honest insight on the true nature of Abutair's character and draw attention to the fact he isn't a credible candidate despite what you may believe. Believe me I wouldn't be questioning Abutair's credibility if he was actually credible. Am I really a spoiler? I don't think so. I am finding that for a small minority of Abutair's supporters is that the truth in this case is really a bitter pill to swallow!
KB
everytime i read your comments , i think how nosense it is. Lets take it point by point.
Firstly I have no idea who you are, and how do you know this much about ab tair? and if say that you are right, then why have u been involved in such deceit?
The information you have given are very serious, and you putting yourelsfin such serious position, accusing someone of fraud and claiming that he lives by scamming and so on . If abutair sees what have yopu written and take it to the Uk court you will find yourself fighting for a life outside bars. I strongly suggest that you take back your cruel and nonsense words , before a legal authority hets involved.
I dont Know Abutair personally, but then if you talk in such way then you surely have been involved in betrying people with him.
leave the palestnian matters to palestnian people and i am sure they know whats best and whats bad for themselves.
i must come back again to all your points later on as i need to read more about abutair . in fact i suggest that yopu put your real name so i search for your past as well as.
I would also suggest to leave personal problems out.Anyone who will read your comment ,would know its personal problem more than being concerened about a nation who siuffered for more than 65 years from all sort of unjustice and humalation.
my short comment here comes out of my curiosty for palestnian people whom i belong to.
KB , My last words to you is be more sincere and honest with yourself .
KB, I forgot to ask you, did you get paid for 14 hours you have worked for abutair? its like you digging a hole for yourslef, i really suggest you take your comments back as soon as you can , If this man becomes a preisdent of Palestine then you may write your next comment from behind the bars....!
What does the CAA standas for? I presume its civil avition authority, yes?
what i really cany understand, how someone whos internationally wanted , and you know him then you still hang around with him and not informing the police , it dosent make sense to me, the whole thing from you dosent add up at all.
Palestnian case has became a profit and benefit for everyone in this world, leave these poor, simple, resilent people alone, for god`s sake,..!we are not a gene pig for anyone, we human beings , we are like everyone else in this whole world, all we need is just to live peacfully and live happily and i cant see why we not entitled for such simple thing.
I really don't understand you at all I am not undermining the suffering of the Palestinian people and I never have. All I said was Abutair is not a credible candiate based around the facts that I have presented most of which I can substantiate. He duped a number of people including myself into supporting him with his campaign which we all did in good faith since learning very recently that he is nothing more than a fraudster I just wanted to draw attention to those facts alone that's it!
I very much doubt that the Palestinians would want a grown up man who needs to be spoon fed as a president!
I know of Mr Abutair. Fraud, lies, deciet and a master of anguish. A small weak, rotten-hearted weed of a man who would use any power bestowed upon him for his own furtherence and NOTHING else. President of Palestine? Don't make laugh, the guy can't run a bath. But I tell you what, I would LOVE him to get Palestine's top job at least then he couldn't keep his head below the radar and with any luck, he'd get it blown off before he plunges millions of innocent people into an abyss of misery that even they can't imagine. There's enough corrupt lunatics on the World stage already, but If you've ever met Mr Mohammed 'Mike' Abutair then you'll know, THE WORLD AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET! This guy will have Mercedes Benz and caviar with Krug while the streets of Palestine burn, will filter millions in cash into personal accounts while women and children scream and blame it all on someone else, will you let him? You probably will!
The reason why Abutair and his party are unknown is beacuse he was too busy conning innocent people in a small town in the UK and now he is seen dossing around the bus and railway stations hoping that someone will throw a penny in his direction.And if I am not mistaken he is on the police radar.WOW Palestinians are gaurnteed success when they have a leader like him.Good luck Palestine!!
DYO:seems like your head is stuck where the sun don't shine.Just like AT your hero.Must be up his ass.
Does anyone know what happened to Abutair...he seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth with his political campaign!
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