Djokovic poised to overtake Nadal

When the ATP World Tour Finals begin on Sunday in London, the storyline is supposed to be Rafael’s Nadal’s outside shot to overtake Roger Federer for the year-end No. 1 ranking.

The real news probably will come from the other direction.

Nadal needs a miraculous change in form on his worst surface to have any chance of making up his 945-point deficit to Federer. Novak Djokovic just needs to keep his November form to put real pressure on Nadal for the No. 2 spot.

The resurgent Serb has won back-to-back tournaments in hostile territory, ending Federer’s three-year reign as the champion in his hometown of Basel, Switzerland and outlasting Frenchman Gael Monfils in the final of the Paris Masters.

After spending 39 consecutive weeks at No. 1 spanning the end of the 2008 and the start of 2009, Nadal could finish a year outside the top two for the first time since 2004.

After getting stuck at No. 3 from August of 2007 to May of 2009, Djokovic could reel in Rafa for the first time in his career.

It’s a real possibility even though Djokovic trails Nadal by 1,295 points entering the World Tour Finals. The three round-robin matches in the preliminary round are worth 200 points each. The semifinal winners get 400 points, and the tournament champion earns 500 points.

If Djokovic goes 5-0, he will add 1,500 points, forcing Nadal to win at least twice to hold on to No. 2.

If Djokovic goes 2-1 in the round robin and wins the tournament, Nadal will have to win once to stay No. 2.

Before you laugh at the long odds, look at their draw.

Both players landed in the B group along with Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling.

Nadal lost his last match to all three players.

Djokovic crushed him 6-2, 6-3 in a Paris semifinal last week, winning 14 consecutive points on Nadal’s serve during one stretch. Nadal did not fare any better in their previous match, falling 6-1, 6-4 in Cincinnati this summer. He has broken Djokovic’s serve only once in their last three meetings.

Davydenko overpowered Nadal 7-6, 6-3 a month ago in the final of Shanghai, China, going for winners and making most of them.

Soderling ended Nadal’s career-long 31-match win streak at Roland Garros in the fourth round, dominating the rallies with his sledgehammer groundstrokes.

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Discounting Nadal is always dangerous because of his fierce competitiveness, but he has not won a tournament since May and has not looked right since coming back from the knee injury that sidelined him for Wimbledon. His shots are landing short, and he is moving a little slower.

Marin Cilic humbled Nadal 6-1, 6-3, in the semifinals of Beijing, the same venue where he cruised to a gold medal at the 2008 Olympics. Juan Martin del Potro handed him the worst grand slam loss of his career, 6-2, 6-2, 6-2, at the U.S. Open.

Djokovic, meanwhile, opens in London with Davydenko, his victim in the final of the 2008 year-end event. He beat a motivated Soderling last week in Paris when the Swede thought he had to win to qualify for London. Ultimately, he got in as an alternate when Andy Roddick pulled out with a knee injury.

An amazing number of people discounted Djokovic as a has-been after he lost early at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, noting his failure to reach the final of a grand slam since winning the Australian Open in 2008.

Even his triumphs drew retroactive rebuttal. He bagged his lone grand slam in Australia by beating a mono-affected Federer in the semifinal and a happy-to-be-there Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final. He won the year-end Masters in 2008 without having to face Federer, Nadal or Andy Murray, dispatching the much-less threatening Gilles Simon and Davydenko in his last two matches.

His extended slump at the majors led to speculation his career was at a crossroads entering the U.S. Open, where he played hard but hardly played well en route to a straight-sets semifinal loss to Federer.

Never mind that at age 22, he is a week younger than Murray or that his combo platter of forehand, backhand, serve and mobility is as lethal as anyone on the tour. Although his game deserted him in big moments, he was far too talented to fade away.

Surprisingly, he has won 76 matches this year, a whopping 12 more than anyone else. He reached the final of five Masters 1000 events (though losing the first four), the biggest tournaments outside the majors. Again, that’s more than anyone else.

He has to prove himself again in the slams, but what better way to prepare than by achieving a career-best world ranking?

If Nadal brings his B game to London, Djokovic will drop him to No. 3.