Arthur Bruzzone
2007-01-15 11:00:00.0
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SAN FRANCISCO -

While we expect media spin from our politicians, there’s a line that divides spin from concealment. When it comes to crime statistics, crossing that line is unacceptable. Official FBI crime statistics over the last three years show a significant increase in violent crimes in San Francisco. We’re not just talking about homicides.

On Jan. 2, Mayor Gavin Newsom and his police chief, Heather Fong, walked the streets of the Western Addition to highlight the drop in the number of homicides in 2006. By year’s end, The City saw 10 fewer homicides than in 2005. What the mayor and the police chief didn’t celebrate: The number of homicides in 2006 represents a 23 percent increase over 2003’s total of 69 homicides. Responding to a reporter on the question of the reduced homicide number, Richmond police Lt. Mark Gagan said homicide numbers tell only part of the story.

“I don’t think just the homicide rate alone is the way to determine whether violence is up or down,” Gagan said.

Lt. Gagan is right. For, what the mayor and the police chief also didn’t tell Western Addition residents is that the number of violent crimes in San Francisco increased 19 percent for the first half of 2006 from the year before. Violent crimes are the total of homicides, forcible rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults. The violent crime statistic is a more accurate snapshot of crime in San Francisco than the homicide rate, notwithstanding the tragedy of each homicide.

News of the spike in violent crimes for the first half of 2006 was dismissed by Morris Tabak, deputy chief of investigations with the San Francisco Police Department. He was quoted as saying, “We’ve seen a huge spike in robberies related to iPods, cell phones and laptops.” Tabak effectively treated the hundreds of more robberies for the first half of the year as essentially nuisance crimes. But a robbery is threatening, traumatizing and it involves loss. It is a violent crime. The number of robberies for the first half of both 2004 and 2005 was approximately 1,500. But in 2006, robberies reached 2,000 incidents in the first half of the year.

Aggravated assaults are also on the rise. For 2003, the FBI reported 2,376 aggravated assaults in San Francisco. In 2005, the FBI reported 2,639 aggravated assaults, or an 11 percent increase.

The truth, not the spin: Crime statistics show that the spike in violent crimes in 2006 is part of a trend in San Francisco. In 2003, the number of violent crimes San Francisco reported to the FBI was 5,985. When projecting the number of violent crimes for the first half of last year, San Francisco may reach above 6,800 violent crimes for 2006 — a 20 percent increase from 2003.

Let’s try to take these figures and make them more personal. We’ll look at violent crimes per 100,000 residents, or per capita. This takes into account the drop in population from 2003. What it shows is that between 2003 and the projected 2006 totals, murder is up 25 percent, aggravated assaults up 10 percent and robberies up 45 percent,

With this in mind, San Francisco might want to take a cue from the mayor of Los Angeles, Antonio Villaraigosa. He’s proposed a $10,000 signing bonus for experienced officers who transfer from other jurisdictions and $5,000 for new recruits who complete training and a probationary period. Like San Francisco, Los Angeles is experiencing a rising number of retirements from the police force. With a $5.7 billion budget, San Francisco can afford to match the Los Angeles proposal. Without a significant increase in police presence, especially in our most dangerous neighborhoods, violent crime will continue to rise, along with the fear it instills in all San Franciscans.

Arthur Bruzzone is an independent print and broadcast commentator. He produces “San Francisco/unscripted.” a weekly TV series.