David S. Kerr
2008-03-29 07:00:00.0
Current rank: Not ranked

WASHINGTON -

In the race between Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner for Virginia's open U.S. Senate seat, many prominent Democrats are acting like this race is all but won and quite a few Republicans seem to think of Gilmore as nothing more than a spirited sacrificial lamb.

However, declaring the winner of the Virginia Senate race so early in this campaign is, to say the least, premature. Jim Gilmore has surprised the skeptics before by showing an uncanny ability to find just the right issue to win an election. This assumes, of course, that he first defeats Del. Robert Marshall of Manassas in the GOP Senate primary.

A little recent Virginia political history is in order here. In 1993, the Republican ticket, led by George Allen, was out of money and behind in the polls. That is, until they found what would be the defining issue of that campaign, the state's then-rising crime rate. While the credit for first capitalizing on this issue has to go to Allen, Gilmore, running for attorney general as an unknown who was not expected to win, grabbed on to the issue with both hands.

Using radio ads, since he couldn't afford TV, he went after his opponent's experience in the courtroom, and stressed his background as a Commonwealth's Attorney. In November, he defeated the Democrat, even winning handily in Northern Virginia.

Gilmore proved to be the ideal "get tough on crime" attorney general in the Allen administration. In 1997, Gilmore became the GOP nominee to succeed Allen, but once again he was the underdog.

Where Gilmore, not always known for personal charm, had his rough edges, his Democratic opponent, Falls Church car dealer Don Beyer, was calm, affable, and most of all, according to the polls, popular. It looked like a good year for the Democrats. That was, until Gilmore, this time entirely on his own, found just the right issue.

In three words - "no car tax" – Gilmore captured Virginians' passionate dislike, bordering on hatred, for the personal property tax. In just a few weeks, the car tax, which had never been a statewide political issue before, transformed the campaign. He easily defeated Beyer in November and for the first time ever led the ticket in carrying all of the state's top jobs for the Republicans.

This year's campaign has similarities to those earlier Gilmore campaigns. He faces a popular opponent, doesn't have enough money, and is behind in the polls. But no one should forget what could be called his political secret weapon, and that's his ability to find the pivotal issue, often one his opponents underrate, that can sway the election.

This year, with Sen. John McCain at the top of the Republican ticket, Gilmore may already have his issue, national security. Few states have as much involvement in security or national defense as Virginia.

While this issue may take second or third place as a leading voter concern in other parts of the country, here in the Commonwealth, it's far more immediate. Virginia is home to thousands of military and defense employees, dozens of military bases, and a host of federal homeland security organizations. Few states have as much of their population, or their economy, so closely tied to national security and defense.

Gilmore's campaign materials prominently note that he was governor during 9/11 and later was appointed by Congress as chairman of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism dealing with Weapons of Mass Destruction.

While Mark Warner also has a number of advantages, his are primarily based in his popularity while serving as governor and his handling of state issues. If Gilmore can shift the debate to national issues, and in particular homeland security, then this fall's election may be less of a foregone conclusion than originally thought.

Examiner contributor David Kerr lives in Alexandria.