Susan Ferrechio, The Examiner
2008-03-21 07:00:00.0
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WASHINGTON -

Republican retirements in the House and Senate have stirred optimism among some Democrats that they can substantially increase their majorities in both chambers and perhaps even establish a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

But political analysts and congressional aides believe Democratic gains will probably be smaller than envisioned because many of the vacancies are in Republican strongholds, and John McCain’s presence on the ballot could help some GOP candidates in moderate districts. In addition, House Democrats stand to lose a few seats held by vulnerable freshmen.

New York Rep. Thomas Reynolds’ retirement announcement Thursday brings to 29 the number of House Republicans who have either resigned or are not seeking re-election. Republican vacancies have also piled up in the Senate. Seven members of the GOP in that chamber have either resigned, died or announced plans to retire.

The departures are historically high for Republicans and have helped fuel speculation that Democrats are poised to make significant gains in Congress in November.

“We’re very optimistic about our chances, and I think it’s going to be a very difficult year for the Republicans,” said Brendan Daly, spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Those predictions were bolstered by Democrat Bill Foster’s unexpected victory earlier this month in Illinois in the special election to fill the seat vacated by former Republican Speaker J. Dennis Hastert.

But Democratic victories may end up being a little less earth-shattering in November. House Democrats currently hold a 35-seat margin, while Senate Democrats squeak by with a 51-49 majority, thanks to two independents who vote with them.

Senate Democrats would have to win nine seats to reach a 60-seat threshold that could block bill-killing filibusters by the GOP. It’s an increase that even top Democratic aides concede is unlikely.

“We could get to 56 or 57, though,” a Democratic leadership aide said.

In the House, where Democrats had outraised Republicans $67 million to $49 million as of the end of February, Democrats estimate they will gain between five and 15

seats.

Democrats concede they could lose a few seats in Republican-leaning districts held by freshmen like Nick Lampson of Texas and Nancy Boyda of Kansas.

Democrats believe that if Barack Obama were the Democratic nominee, it would help the party pick up several seats vacated by Republicans in his home state of Illinois.

“Democrats should be able to increase their leads in the House and the Senate, but I don’t think it will be anything dramatic,” Arizona State University political scientist Patrick Kenney said.

sferrechio@dcexaminer.com