David Kerr
2007-11-03 07:00:00.0
Current rank: # 4,298 of 5,057

WASHINGTON -

 Not more than six years ago it seemed as if the Democrats in the Virginia General Assembly were on the edge of political oblivion. They had were at their lowest level ever in the State Senate and held an anemic 34 seats in the 100 member House of Delegates.

Save for making speeches, their influence in the House was next to nil and the same, at least in the early part of the decade, was true in the Senate. But like the GOP when it was in the minority the Democrats devised a simple comeback strategy. They focused their limited resources on specific races, picked up a few seats in the House, and at the same time added a couple of senate seats to their total.

But most of all, they waited for an opportunity when the state's changing demographics and the mood of the electorate would favor a comeback. This year their time might have arrived. The Democrats, along with hoping for some modest gains in the House, have decided that they have a real shot at taking the Senate.

They feel that a combination of changing demographics, particularly in Northern Virginia, strong candidates, lots of money, and a generally favorable year for Democrats gives them the edge.

Its likely that they're right, they may get their majority, but before anyone starts predicting major changes in the Senate's direction, it might be wise to take a deep breath and consider that for the most part, the state's political dynamic, isn't likely to change that much. The same moderate coalition, just with a few new members and a mildly different tilt, will still be in charge of the Senate.

However, no one is taking this election lightly. The GOP knows that a loss of the upper chamber would be a major blow.

The formula for a Democratic takeover requires at least two, and ideally three, major wins in Fairfax County. Fairfax, particularly during the past few years, has been trending heavily towards the Democrats. So much so, that Republican State Senators, last elected in 2003, are starting to feel like an endangered species.

However, the magic number the Democrats need to get a majority is four. If they win all of the vulnerable Fairfax seats, they still need to find the rest somewhere else. There is a long shot hope that they may get the seat of retiring Senator Russ Potts in the Winchester area, but that's a stretch.

That region is solidly Republican. They have better prospects in Hampton Roads, particularly for the Seat Senator Marty Williams lost in the primary. Republican Tricia Stall's harsh ant-tax stand may be too much for an area desperate for transportation money. John Chichester's old seat is also in play and that's considered a toss up.

It's possible under several scenarios that the Democrats may get control of the Senate. It will be body blow to the Republicans and the Democrats will be guaranteed a seat at the table when it comes time to negotiate the district boundary redrawing. But, at the risk of annoying the hard core party activists, the outcome of this election probably won't produce any serious change in the Senate's direction.

Even with a new majority in charge, the margin of difference between the two parties is going to be close. It may even be a tie. This means that more often than not the same coalition of moderate Republicans and Democrats will be in control.

If the Democrats win, the chamber may lean a little bit more to the left than it did before, but probably not that much. What's more, the impasses with the House, which will continue to be more conservative than the Senate, even if the GOP hangs on to the majority, will likely continue.

What this means is that when the legislature reconvenes in January it may not seem like much has changed.

Examiner contributor David Kerr is an Alexandria resident.