According to this story by Doug Ward in the Vancouver Sun, a new poll from Forum Research Inc. has given the BC NDP an 11-point lead over the BC Liberals, who tied with the BC Conservative Party at 23%. The BC Green Party also scored a fairly-decent 15% in Forum Research's survey, which was conducted by phone on December 15th, with 1,045 British Columbians. Even with a margin of error of plus or minus 3, the results can't be making the BC Liberal camp too happy.
Clark’s backers in the B.C. Liberal nomination contest earlier this year believed she could revive the party’s brand, which had been battered under her unpopular predecessor, former premier Gordon Campbell.
But the Forum Research survey found that Clark has been unable to stop a shift of previous B.C. Liberal voters to the resurgent B.C. Conservatives under new leader John Cummins.“The Conservatives are really cannibalizing the B.C. Liberals right now,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.“It looks like the NDP could come up the middle.”The findings are consistent with results from other recent political polls, which show the Conservatives cutting into B.C. Liberal support.Bozinoff said that while the NDP is hanging on to its core support of between 30 and 35 per cent, the B.C. Liberal Party has seen a steady erosion of its base.“The problem for the B.C. Liberals is that they are in the middle and they bleed both ways,” said the pollster.“They are pinned down on both sides. We saw that happen to the federal Liberals in the recent election.”Bozinoff cautioned that the poll is a snapshot of current voter attitudes and that the B.C. Liberals have plenty of time to improve their status before the scheduled election in May 2013.The Forum Research poll also found strong discontent with Clark herself. Fewer than one in three voters approve of Clark’s job performance. Twenty-nine per cent of British Columbians approve of Clark compared to 45 per cent who disapprove and 27 per cent with no opinion.Clark’s approval rating trails NDP leader Adrian Dix, who has an approval rating of 37 per cent, compared to 28 per cent who disapprove and 35 per cent without an opinion.
A few things:
1) This poll, while interesting, means nothing. A lot can, and will, change between now and the next provincial election, and any speculation as a result of Forum Research Inc.'s survey is just that: speculation. But it's fun speculation.
2) This effectively debunks BC Conservative leader John Cummins' talking point that his party can win - in this case, in the Chilliwack-Hope byelection - without stealing Liberal votes and by appealing to nonvoters and the disenfranchised instead. The BC Liberals are losing supporters to the BC Conservatives, period. Denial of this fact has to stop, and both the Conservatives and the Liberals need to start explaining why they deserve a voting base that they're already fighting over.
3) If this trend holds, the BC NDP will win the next election, and this could be good for everybody. The benefits to the NDP are clear: they'll finally get a kick at the can. Liberal voters and supporters won't like an NDP win, for obvious reasons, but it could benefit the Liberal Party in the long run. Being in power for a decade takes its toll on any political force, and a few years out of office might give the party time to lick its wounds, clear the deadwood, and get away from numbers like this. And the BC Conservatives should be able to more firmly establish themselves as a force to be reckoned with if they keep going like they have been.
Next year will be exciting.
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