Like the song goes, "something going on over there". What's happening in the New York 23rd Congressional District may have national significance. It's looking like a political earthquake in progress, and it has a San Francisco flavor to it.
Going into the weekend, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman had a commanding lead in the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional District. In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava, Conservative Party's Hoffman led with 51% to 34% for the Democrat Owens and 13% for Republican Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens, Hoffman held a 54-38 advantage.
But then the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race, and endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens!!
In San Francisco style, a Republican abandoned her own party's candidate and chose a liberal Democrat, saying it was the best choice for her district. (Recall the hundreds of San Francisco republicans who were strong early financial supporters of Democrat Mayor Gavin Newsom and his defunct run for California governor over the Republican candidate.)
Didn't make much difference. In interviews conducted before Scozzafava announced the suspension of her campaign Conservative Party's Hoffman led Owens 49-31 with 17% going to Scozzafava. The latest polls show the race tightening up. So, President Obama sent Vice President Biden up to New York to help bailout Owens.
What we're seeing, at least in the NY 23rd CD, is a prairie fire revolution among conservative voters despite their party registration. A good many voters are angry and frustrated with President Obama, Congress, and the Republican Party. And since a recent poll showed 51% of voters nationwide labeling themselves "conservative", the New York race, has deep significance for future campaigns.
Add the continuing shift of voters into the "declined to state" category, and you have an uncertain political landscape --- where party registration could mean much less important in the future. Candidates will become all-important, despite party label. The Conservative Party and a host of smaller parties may grow in significance. Like in San Francisco, it will become the accumulation of endorsements, not the party endorsement, that may decide a candidate's success. We'll see if this is just a political tremor or a major shakeup when the results come in tomorrow from New York's 23rd CD.
Comments
Art, the NY situation is very different and the conservative party has been strong there for years. I went to college in NY-23 and live now on the border of CA-10. Two special elections tomorrow in those districts. I do think you're right about the abandonment of party loyalty and voters' favorability towards candidates. In this state, that is probably a good thing because our candidates from state to local continue to be far stronger than the party system that supports them.
Liberal Juan Williams said that Hoffman's late entry into the race, him really lacking charisma, and him lacking political expertise when it came to effectively running for this seat are the things that actually hurt him and his chances at winning in NY-23.
I sure hope that Democrats don't try to use diversionary tactics and attack Juan Willams personally and try to come up with bogus reasons for why he said what he did - though I expect them to try. There are certain political realities that are undeniable and often insurmountable and Juan Williams correctly pointed them out. Perhaps they were this time.
In the end, Juan Williams was once again spot on in his political observations.
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