Splitting hairs on Taliban vs. al-Qaeda, US ignores Pakistan at its own peril

Pakistani tribal refugees on the Afghan border (Photo: AP)

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Wednesday, November 11th, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani indicated his desire that Pakistan be taken into US "confidence" on Afghanistan, telling the Congressional delegation in Islamabad that increased cooperation and intelligence sharing is vital to fight against militants on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Rep. John Tierney (D-MA) who is the chair of the House Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs, led the delegation. Multiple regional issues were discussed including an underscoring of President Obama's desire for increased cooperation between the two countries. Tierney stressed the importance of strict oversight of US funds to Pakistan, saying, "...whenever the request was made, the bill was paid. Now you are going to find out there has to be substantial verification before the funds are paid." National Security Adviser James L. Jones was also in Islamabad in Friday, following up on a lukewarm reception to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week. Jones appears to have smoothed over ruffled feathers, reassuring the Pakistani government that the US is committed to supporting anti-Taliban efforts in the country, as well as continuing infrastructure rebuilding and to supporting Pakistan's efforts to quell disputes in the Kashmir region, which are causing continued tensions with India. The Obama Administration is now giving signs that they intend to bring Pakistan further into the fold on the overall anti-Taliban and anti-al-Qaeda campaigns being carried out in Pakistan and Afghanistan respectively. As it becomes more obvious that fighting on the Af-Pak border will continue, and the Taliban is now making a strong counter offensive against Pakistani civilian areas, the US and its allies are being forced to accept the reality that they are pushing the enemy across the Afghanistan border into Pakistan, and that both al-Qaeda and Taliban forces need to be combated in a blanket effort between both countries. Jones was in Islamabad to determine Pakistan's readiness to participate, amid questions of their commitment, as well as the political problems which are complicating efforts in Afghanistan as well.

Apology Tour Goes On A Detour

Secretary Clinton gave very tough talk while in Pakistan, and although she expanded on her remarks to Greta van Susteren later, she was initially rebuffed by the Pakistani government for what was taken as an accusation of abetting Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda, with her comment, "I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where al Qaeda is and couldn't get them, if they really wanted to." Secretary Clinton greatly expanded her remarks to Fox correspondent Greta van Susteren in an extensive interview. The Secretary of State seems to have indicated that she was attempting to bridge the trust gap between Pakistan and the US with her blunt remarks. She said:

And they said to me very clearly, Look, we have a trust deficit for you. And I said, Well, look, that's a two-way street. And I'm happy to take any of your questions. I'm happy to admit where we may not have always done as well as we could have in our relationship. But a lot of people back home want to know, you know, How come al Qaeda has a safe haven in Pakistan? How come we arrest somebody like Zazi and find out that he was trained in a training camp run by al Qaeda in Pakistan?

I think that's the kind of relationship we need to have. I mean, we're very impressed by the campaign that the military here is running against the Pakistan Taliban in Swat and South Waziristan. But our point to our friends in Pakistan is that that is an important and necessary step for you to take, but remember that there is a terrorist syndicate with al Qaeda at the head. They inspire. They direct. They fund these groups. And so you can't just say your job is done because you've cleared out Swat and you've cleared out South Waziristan until we truly root out what is, in my view, the source of a syndicate and a lot of the problems that Pakistan, Afghanistan and the rest of us face.

Both Pakistan and Afghanistan struggling with internal corrupution problems

Both governments are under scrutiny for internal corruption, which raises questions about the ability of either country to fully cooperate with the US in anti-terrorism campaigns. Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari may soon face wide-spread charges of corruption. Zardari is the widower of the assassinated Benzir Bhutto, who served twice a Prime Minister of Pakistan, and is also Co-Chair of the People's Party of Pakistan (PPP). The majority of the charges stem from Zardari's involvement with the exiled and disgraced Bhutto family and involve extensive money laundering and murder. Zardari has been in and out of prison several times on corruption charges. In Afghanistan, President Hamid Karzai also faces political turmoil and a questionable hold on authority after the 2009 election scandals where Karzai's second term win is still considered dubious. Karzai was re-elected on August 20, 2009, however a run-off election was forced by the US and its allies, "between incumbent President Hamid Karzai and his main rival Abdullah Abdullah was announced for November 7, 2009. On November 1, however, Abdullah announced that he would no longer be participating in the run-off because his demands for changes in the electoral commission had not been met, and a 'transparent election is not possible.' A day later, on November 2, 2009, officials of the election commission canceled the run-off and declared Hamid Karzai as President of Afghanistan for another 5 year term." The Taliban called for a boycott of the election, claiming it was sham, and implicating the United States in major electoral and military coercion. Low voter turnout, ballot tampering, intense violence surrounding election day, and a cluster of international agencies accusing warlords and Taliban agitators of interfering all tainted the process. As a result, both Pakistan and Afghanistan are in greatly weakened capacities in terms of international trust and their ability to enter military agreements with the US or NATO.

Splitting hairs on Taliban vs. al-Qaeda

Taliban and al-Qaeda are intrinsically connected. Since early October 2009, or sooner, the US government has been actively investigating increased ties between the two groups. Connections between the two seem to stem from 1996 and Osama bin Laden's arrival in Afghanistan. Ultimately bin Laden was able to form an alliance between al-Qaeda and Taliban, although initial contact with the Taliban chief, Mullah Mohammed Omar were tense. Although al-Qaeda has concentrated the majority of its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, it was founded in Pakistan, and in cooperation with Taliban infrastructure, has permeated the entire tribal region, most likely joining with the Taliban in many operations. Osama bin Laden has extensive ties to the Saudi government and has been building operations in Sudan for many years. His addition to the Taliban-sponsored umbrella in Pakistan brings a wash of money and underground connections, particularly through the opium trade. The Taliban has come in and out of favor in Afghanistan since the early 1990's, and begin its true spread through Pakistan in 1997 using the madrassas (religious schools) as it's medium. Bruce Riedel, a member of the CIA who has worked with the Obama administration on Af-Pak policy made a statement that any thinking separating Taliban from al-Qaeda was, "fundamental misreading of the nature of these organizations to think that they are anything other than partners. Al-Qaeda is embedded in the Taliban insurgency, and it's highly unlikely that you're going to be able to separate them."

Time for a comprehensive strategy including Pakistan

Secretary Clinton also made a clear statement that the US understand the connection between Taliban and al-Qaeda and thus, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In a recent interview she indicated, "Clearly, al Qaeda left Afghanistan and we let them out. You know, we should have taken them out when we had the chance back in '01 and '02. And they escaped, and they escaped into Pakistan. So to that extent, you know, if we had done a better job going into a Afghanistan and captured the people who attacked us or killed them, you know, we would be maybe in a different position." Although the President is putting a calm face on the question of increased US troops in Afghanistan, it is clear that the international community is getting impatient. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced on Friday that NATO will offer an additional 5000 troops to Afghanistan, seeming to agree that a troop increase is warranted and necessary. Continuing war council meetings inside the Obama administration are showing varied opinions, including some who think no additional troops should be sent, pending the outcome of both Afghanistan and Pakistan's internal political problems. However, increased violence, as well as evidence of cross-border terrorist strategies are pressing the issue. The government of Pakistan has called for an immediate halt to US drone attacks, one of the alternate strategies touted particularly by Vice President Joe Biden. Independent reports confirm that since 2008 alone, drone attacks have resulted in 687 civilian casualties in Pakistan, underscoring the opinion that blind drone attacks are counter-productive. NATO has also called a meeting scheduled for November 23rd, which will attempt to recruit and train more security forces inside Afghanistan. The Associate Press reports:

Two NATO officials said the alliance expects on Nov. 23 to obtain commitments from allies for more personnel and resources to train, mentor and equip the Afghan government forces. Both officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity in keeping with NATO regulations.

The U.S. and NATO previously maintained separate training missions in Afghanistan. They recently established a joint headquarters known as the NATO Training Mission to handle the expanded effort. It will be commanded by U.S. Lt. Gen. William Caldwell IV, whose appointment was confirmed by the U.S. Senate on Oct. 28.

NATO says it currently fields 62 operational mentor and liaison teams embedded with Afghan forces and that the an additional seven are needed immediately. But at least 113 teams will be required for the expanded effort envisaged by McChrystal. Each team consists of up to 30 members. Officials say that the training mission must be reinforced by several thousand men to deal with additional requirements.

The United States is now coming under international scrutiny for taking so long on the Afghanistan decision. Richard Holbrooke, the State Department Special Envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan is making his own tour of NATO capitals, trying to ease tensions. Lisa Curtis, a senior fellow at the Asian Studies Center of the Heritage Foundation in Washington said, "The ongoing public debate about Afghanistan has already cost the US credibility with its NATO allies and is confusing our regional allies, who are starting to hedge their bets and plan for a decreased US commitment to the region." The Christian Science Monitor reports, "Mr. Holbrooke, who attended the president's Afghanistan policy review session Wednesday, was in Berlin Thursday and is in Paris Friday, before returning to Germany Saturday. He will then go to Moscow Sunday, before heading to Kabul to attend President Karzai's inauguration for his second term Nov. 19."

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