Critical health care reform vote Saturday, ugly gets uglier

CORRECTION: Dick Durbin is Majority Whip and Ben Nelson is from Nebraska.

A vote to invoke cloture is scheduled in the Senate for Saturday, Nov. 21st, 2009 at 8 PM. The vote, if it reaches the critical mass of 60 yeas, will allow for debate to begin on the Senate floor. The cloture vote is critical to overcome Republican opposition, which would effectively kill the bill. Importantly, allowing debate to begin means a final vote will be possible. The Senate is under pressure to pass their version of the health care reform bill, lagging behind and having harsher disagreements, and a higher price tag than the House of Representatives, which passed its version on Nov. 7th, two weeks ago. Meeting the President's deadline of signing health care reform into law within his first year in office is a ticking clock, a political time-bomb if it goes poorly for Democrats. Just over 60 days remain until January 20th, the conclusion of Barack Obama's inaugural year, a traditionally important benchmark for any Administration.

Obama under fire from every direction, needs reform to pass

President Obama made headlines recently for slumping poll numbers, falling below the climacteric 50% mark; Gallup published a poll today indicating that Obama's public support has fallen to 49%, citing, "...the contentious debate over health care as well as the poor state of the U.S. economy, with millions of Americans out of work. Americans are also concerned about the Obama administration's reliance on government spending to solve the nation's problems and the growing federal budget deficit." Confidence in the US involvement in Afghanistan, and for a troop increase, is also at an all-time low, yet simultaneously, the President is being criticized for taking too long to make a decision on Afghanistan. True or not, the accusation of "dithering" stuck to the wall. The analysis of the Gallup survey offered by Reuters notes that Obama's approval plunge is still less than those of his predecessors, "...Republican Gerald Ford, Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican Ronald Reagan." President Obama himself made the public statement that he was willing to be a one-term president to get health care reform signed into law. It is a referendum on the perceived "liberal faction" that propelled Obama to the Oval Office, and it has moderate Democrats on pins and needles.

Three moderate Dems seen as critical votes

One important voice that buffeted hopes for the passage of a cloture vote was from Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) who is considered one of three moderate Democrats in danger of joining the opposition. Nelson gave his party a break today, indicating he would vote for cloture, although reserving the right to oppose the final bill. Nelson said he would support the opening of debate. Reuters reports: "Nelson said he is still uncertain whether he will support the final legislation but he wants a 'full and open' debate. If approved in Saturday's 8 p.m. vote, the debate would start on November 30. 'Throughout my Senate career I have consistently rejected efforts to obstruct. That's what the vote on the motion to proceed is all about,' Nelson, one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, said in a statement. 'It is only to begin debate and an opportunity to make improvements. If you don't like a bill why block your own opportunity to amend it?' he said."

Two other Democratic Senators are considered wild cards on Saturday's vote. One, Blanche Lincoln (D-Arkansas) quoted an old Bill Clinton campaign logo while on a visit to Lonoke County on Thursday, "It's the economy, stupid," noting, "and it still is." The other, Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has been openly accused of allowing her vote to be bought by Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Mark Whittington at Associated Content says, "The language in Section 2006, as quoted by ABC News, is somewhat complicated and obtuse. Fortunately the bottom line was given by the Congressional Budget Office. If the Senate version of the health care bill passes, the state of Louisiana gets a hundred million dollars. It was once said that no amount of money could buy a Senator. However, it looks like that Harry Reid thinks that $100 million is sufficient to buy one Senator's vote, that is to say Senator Mary Landrieu's vote." Harry Reid met with all three moderates on Wednesday, seeking to reconcile them with the bill, while Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) said, "... it's about 'working hard to bring all Democrats together for the 60 votes necessary to proceed to this historic debate.' Durbin said it would be a 'real break' if even one Republican got on board with Democrats. 'But if they don't, I'm hoping that we can muster our ranks to stand together,' he added."

Bipartisan endorsement comes at a critical moment

Any differences in the final versions of the separate House and Senate bills will have to be reconciled before a final bill is sent to the President to be signed into law. Senate Democrats are anxious to have debate begin to allow as much of the estimated three weeks of time needed to complete the process fairly. The White House recently circulated an endorsement from major-league political players, Tommy G. Thompson, former Republican health secretary under President George W. Bush, and Richard A. Gephardt, former Democratic House Majority Leader under Presidents Bush and Clinton successively. The joint statement says, "The health care bill in the Senate represents another milestone in achieving meaningful health care reform for millions of Americans. It is now critical that members of Congress work together in a bipartisan fashion to pass a common-sense, fiscally responsible solution to drive down health care costs, ensure access to affordable and quality care, increase efficiency and achieve real savings. While we both have specific concerns with the bill in its current form, we believe a bipartisan consensus must emerge to address the health care crises in America. All evidence shows that the number of uninsured Americans will continue to rise and that skyrocketing costs will be simply unsustainable for American businesses and workers without Congressional action in the near term." ==FULL STORY== Bloomberg has a side-by-side comparison of the House and Senate bills, which would be combined into their final, single version by a congressional conference committee.

Conservatives unite against abortion, gay marriage, women's health care "under attack"

A fresh debate has also broken out over the language in the Senate bill concerning abortion, same sex marriage and women's health. Some critics feel that health care for women is under Conservative attack. Karen Harper at Examiner.com says, "In the latest form of the health care reform bill, Bart Stupak, (D), MI., proposed an amendment that would exclude abortion care and treatment from health insurance for women, not just government funded health care such as Medicare or a public option but by any private health care insurance company as well. The Stupak amendment passed and if it isn't cut from the bill, women will find themselves with few choices." Conservative religious groups have also reared their head again, after briefly distancing themselves from politics. The Manhattan Declaration: A Call of Christian Conscience, a 4,700 page document signed by more than 150 Christian leaders on Friday openly declares war on abortion and gay marriage. The Associated Press reports, "More than 150 Christian leaders, most of them conservative evangelicals and traditionalist Roman Catholics, issued a joint declaration Friday reaffirming their opposition to abortion and gay marriage and pledging to protect religious freedoms. The 4,700-word document, called 'The Manhattan Declaration: A Call of Christian Conscience,' sounds familiar themes from political and social debates over the health care overhaul and gay marriage battles. While acknowledging that 'Christians and our institutions have too often scandalously failed to uphold the institution of marriage,' the group rejects same-sex marriage. The declaration states that opening a legal door for gay marriage would do the same for polyamorous partnerships, polygamous households, even adult brothers, sisters, or brothers and sisters living in incestuous relationships... 'The present administration is led and staffed by those who want to make abortions legal at any stage of fetal development, and who want to provide abortions at taxpayer expense,' it says." There is also a flare-up scare that if health care reform passes, women will lose health coverage for mammograms. Health Secretary Sebelius made an attempt to reassure Americans that this was not true, but has been accused instead, by the Washington Post of not, "...showing the leadership necessary to lead a grown-up national discussion on how to eliminate unnecessary or wasteful procedures..."

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