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Micheal Steele faces a contradictory numberys. AP Photo Seth Wenig
Two important polls released today by CNN and Rasmussen reveal an apparent contradiction which could hold the key to the 2010 midterm elections. The CNN poll is potentially disastrous for the GOP while the Rasmussen poll gives a much brighter picture for Republicans.
First let us examine the CNN poll. CNN's poll reveals that only 36% of Americans have a favorable view of Republicans while 54% view them negatively. The low favorability for the GOP is its lowest in over a decade. Furthermore the numbers do not compare well with Democrats who have a favorability rating of 53% with 41% viewing them unfavorably. Just looking at the CNN poll it would seem the Democrats would actually stand to gain seats in the 2010 election.
Rasmussen however shows why you should consult multiple polls in analyzing political parties. Rasmussen's poll asked likely voters who they trust more on ten separate issues and the results were very positive for Republicans. On the most important issues of the economy and the war on terror Republicans lead Democrats by a double-digit margin. Republicans also lead by over five percentage points in the areas of education, health care, and taxes. If you simply looked at this poll you would expect Republicans to take back both branches of Congress in 2010.
So what explains the apparent contradiction? First the population polled differs dramatically. The CNN poll asked "adult Americans" for their views while the Rasmussen poll asked "likely voters" in their poll. The CNN poll therefore likely includes some "Americans" who are not going to be participating in the 2010 election. Furthermore depending on how much you trust Rasmussen's sampling formula their poll may leave out Democratic voters who trust Democrats more on the issues. For instance does the Rasmussen formula take into account the shrinking percentage of Americans who now call themselves Republican? The data accompanying the poll does not reveal the answer.
Another explanation for the polls conflicting results likely lies in the experiences of the past few months. While Americans may agree with Republicans on many issues the behavior of Republicans like Rep. Joe Wilson and various town hall protesters has likely led some to view the GOP unfavorably. After all I could agree with someone on nearly all their viewpoints yet still view them unfavorable if I did not like the way they advocate their beliefs.
These two polls also give us a preview of what can be expected in the 2010 campaigns. Democrats will likely again focus on getting out the vote as much as possible to try and get as many "Americans" as possible to vote. If the "likely voter" model of Rasmussen holds true on election day this will be bad news for Democrats. Furthermore, Republicans will likely focus on the issues more in the next election while Democrats attack Republicans as obstructionists who are uncivil in their opposition to all things Democrat.
Comments
CNN polls are also expected to produce the proper, liberal results. After all, they are an Obama Approved news organization.
CNN is not a credible news organization. Their ratings are like those of TOTUS: torpedoed and sinking.
who do you believe is more credible; rasmussen, or CNN?
THE PEOPLE OF THE 5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT OF CONNECTICUT WILL
ELECT INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE JOHN PISTONE TO CONGRESS IN 2010.
www.pistoneforcongress.org
Its about time that someone calls out Obama. I was not political until Joe Wilson spoke the truth. I wish that there are more like him. We need our reps and reporters to call out when we are being lied to which is all the time by D.C and the media.
I know for a "FACT" 11 people who voted for Obama and are now so sorry and will vote for the lessor of 2 evils next time around and that will be the republicans. We studied differnt polling groups many years ago in college and found Rasm to be the best choice. I do not remember if CNN was 1 but it did include Zogby and Gallup among others. I am an independent and have never attendened a tea party but if 1 is close to my home I will as this is the worst I have ever seen it in America!
I totoally agree!!People love to label the tea party but when I call a congressman's office and they mention if I am part of the tea party I say..YESA, THOSE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE DISGUSTED WITH OBAMA AND THE DIRECTION OIF THIS COUNTRY! Shuts theb up every time, And now, we learn what we knew-healthcare is going to to infringe on our rights and cost a fortune!!I des[pise Obvama-he is a thin skinned "little" man who is an inept community org. Let him crawl back into the woodwork with his czars. November---can't wait!!!!
Ryan,
Could you PLEASE stop putting up pictures of Mike Steele?? He is a phoney Republican...he is a Liberal/Statist in Republican clothes.
Max785 says: "..this is the worst I have ever seen it in America."
Thank you! I agree. As do millions of other Americans. (just don't let Jake hear you say it)
Your cut and paste feature failed when posting the opposing results so:
The economy
49% Republicans
35% Democrats
16% Not sure
2* National security and the War on Terror
54% Republicans
31% Democrats
15% Not sure
3* The war in Iraq
50% Republicans
31% Democrats
19% Not sure
4* Immigration
40% Republicans
33% Democrats
27% Not sure
5* Government ethics and corruption
33% Republicans
29% Democrats
38% Not sure
6* Taxes
50% Republicans
35% Democrats
15% Not sure
7* Health care
46% Republicans
40% Democrats
14% Not sure
8* Social Security
45% Republicans
37% Democrats
19% Not sure
9* Education
43% Republicans
38% Democrats
18% Not sure
10* Abortion
47% Republicans
35% Democrats
19% Not sure
I will be voting I promise.
"(just don't let Jake hear you say it) "
That's just the short attention span of youth whining, jamie. People old enough remember Vietnam/LBJ/Nixon/gas lines and 'stagflation.'
Even older ones can grouse about FDR or the idiots who preceded him (take your pick).
And I do seem to recall reading somewhere sometime about this thing that kinda threatened to tear the country apart back in the 1860s.
During the lead-up to, and through the last election, Rasmussen was uncannily correct, to the point that I quit following all other polls except Rasmussen. The pudding where the proof of my decision was found, was in the elections in VA, NJ and MA.
Ask CNN for their unedited metrics. I doubt they will share. Rasmussen doesn't skew results the way CNN, CBS, MSNBC and other mainstream media outlets who fear losing access to White House do. And, as others have pointed out, they have been correct more often than not. CNN polls cannot say the same.
Rasmussen has always been right on target.I am praying that November destroys the lying, shove it down your throats dems. Now..they hate Obama and the healyhcare bill..good luck dems and go to hell!!! Hopefully the republicans can put the brakes on this inept dictator. Let him disappear into the wall with his czars.
Man, you republicans need to get over it. You lost in 2008, and there no way you can take control of both houses. You ran this country into the ground for 10 years, sold American jobs over seas for tax break, got us into two wars, financial destroy most US cities credit rating, and your party has no new really good ideals to get this country back to being produced. WOW!
So, you got mad because Obama and the Democrats kick the Republicans butt in the 2008 election. So, the Republican law makers decided not to support the new administration and any thing to help America. There will be some surprises come midterm election.
CNN poll is more of true forecast then Rasmussen any date of the week.
Pistone for Congress in 2012. This is great news!
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