Poll: Republicans edge Dems in battle for swing vote

Voters in 70 tightly-contested "swing" congressional districts favor Republican candidates this year by a margin of 49 to 41 percent, according to a poll Tuesday foretelling a possible Republican takeover of the United States House of Representatives in 2010 and  a shift in the Illinois congressional delegation for the next decade. 

The National Public Radio survey polled 1,200 likely voters in 70 House districts seen by experts as most likely to oust incumbents in November, and found voters are choosing Republicans over Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent.  Three of those districts are located in Illinois, including Bill Foster's fourteenth district, Melissa Bean's 8th District and Debbie Halvorsen's 11th District. 

Halvorsen and Foster are considered the most vulnerable Democrats in Illinois because they represent districts that were recently considered safe Republican seats.  However, the newest poll may also show that Bean is vulnerable. 

The poll conducted by Republican Paul Bulger and Democrat Steve Greenberg measured voter sentiment in battleground House districts where a switch in party control is possible.  In addition to the 49 to 41 percent finding, the poll also found Obama's approval ratings to be much lower than they are nationally, with 54 percent disapproving of his performance, while just 40 percent approved.

"It's very problematic for the president to have a 40 percent approval rating in these 60 Democratic districts," said Republican pollster Glen Bolger.  Historically, a President's poll numbers below fifty percent indicates a loss of at least forty seats. 

Currently the House is split with 256 Democrats and 178 Republicans.  A loss of 40 seats, would change the control to 216 Democrats and 218 Republicans shifting control to the Republicans for the first time since 2006. 

The pollsters noted that the Republicans are more energized this year than Democrats.  In large part the energy has arisen from a perception that President Obama's administration is moving the country toward socialism and that its leaders are not willing to listen to the people.  The health insurance debate gave rise the Tea Party movement and caused many in the middle to move toward the Republicans. 

Illinois Democratic Congressmen carry a greater burden as their former standard bearer, Rod Blagojevich is standing trial for various corruption charges at this time. 

Illinois has 18 Congressmen, including 12 Democrats and 6 Republicans.  The six Republicans, including Mark Kirk's tenth district are considered safe.  If two of the three Democratic Districts switch to the Republican candidates, which seems likely, the breakdown would be 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans.  However, if all three Democrats lose, then the delegation will be split with 9 from each party as we head into redistricting.  It is expected that Illinois will lose one seat in Congress which will require a race between at least two of the current congressmen. 

Certain districts where minorities are now elected cannot be reduced without a fear of being sued in federal court.  It will be very difficult for Democrats to keep as many as nine seats after the redistricting.

Dennis Brennan is an attorney and writes a daily column for the examiner.com