Is Antonio Bastardo a keeper for the Phillies rotation?

Antonio Bastardo has been outstanding. Can it last?

Two games isn’t a very strong indicator of what a pitcher can do long term.  In the case of Phillies starter Antonio Bastardo, we are learning that sometimes sitting back and simply waiting can be the best course of action.

Bastardo has thrown two very good games to begin his major league career, his second coming Sunday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers on national television.  In this latest trip to the hill, Bastardo did not wow, but did produce a solid line of five innings, seven hits, two earned runs, a walk, and four strikeouts.  The left-hander tossed 107 total pitches, five more than his initial start.  

When breaking down the numbers on Bastardo, he relies a little too much on his fastball, meaning his breaking pitches are not quite refined enough for his liking.  Bastardo threw fastballs on 79 of his 107 pitches, throwing three-quarters of them for strikes.  The fastball works, no doubt.  However, his slider and changeup scare him off.  He used the slider just five times and the changeup 18 times against the Dodgers.  

Of those 79 fastballs, Bastardo had an average speed of around 91 mph on the gun, so the velocity is there.  In future starts, it’s imperative that Bastardo slowly mix in his breaking stuff, or the opposition will simply sit fastball and wait for the time to pounce.  In Bastardo’s defense, a very potent lineup was held in check by a rookie.  The Dodgers lead the National League in runs with 305, so this was quality in every way by the 23-year old Dominican.

Another discouraging number is his fly ball rate.  During his two appearances, 21 outs have been recorded via the fly ball, while just 13 have been on the ground. Bastardo also has nine punchouts.  Will that be a problem in Philadelphia?  He has pitched in two spacey parks, Dodger Stadium and Petco Park in San Diego.  Keep an eye on that stat, as it may be one to bring the Bastardo rocket ship back down to earth.  

Honestly, it’s a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t situation for Bastardo at this point.  The Phillies have proven to be a smart bunch, with Ruben Amaro Jr. making great deal after great deal since taking over as head honcho.  With two youngsters now slotted in the rotation (Bastardo and J.A. Happ) its likely a veteran pitcher will be picked up at the deadline.  Championship winning ball clubs will not settle for that much youth while trying to win another pennant. Look for the Phillies to reach out for a big-name, as the rumors have already shown. Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, and the rest will all be discussed.  This seems more like an audition for Bastardo than anything else.

But support the kid while you can. He is pitching at an outstanding level right now, as his ERA sits in the mid-two’s.  Just know that he may not be here for long, especially if a solid, veteran arm becomes available for the right price.  Still, we are looking at what could be the future of the Phillies rotation, and for two starts, it shines bright.