Analysis: Shrinking Obama job approval in some states makes for tougher path to reelection

It seems a little early to be talking about the 2012 Presidential election but certain political trends that have been witnessed over the past year point to the possibility of a shakeup already in the works. The third entry in Gallup’s “State of the States” series for 2009 takes a look at President Obama’s job approval from across the country.

The released data shows a cumulative rating of 57.6% for Obama during his first calendar year in office. That is considerably higher than the President’s average approval rating over the past several months from Gallup that indicates support of around half the country. At present Gallup pegs Obama’s job approval at 51% with 41% disapproving. This is also notably higher than other February polls released from the likes of Rasmussen Reports, Fox News and Marist that show the President scoring on average a less than desirable 45-46% rating.

None the less the recent study is a helpful way to track where the President is most and least popular at a state by state level. Since the approval for a President does not rise and fall evenly between states with the changing political landscape it’s generally not a good idea to speculate what Obama’s current job approval ratings are at a state level. If we average the President’s approval rating over the past several weeks as being 50%, at least according to Gallup polling, than compare that to his 57.6% average from 2009 we are left with around a 12.5% drop in appeal.

For hypothetical purposes only we can then apply that 12.5% decline to each state and perhaps get a better read on the current levels of approval for President Obama across the electorate. The table below shows Obama’s approval rating in each state for 2009, our adjusted ratings for 2010, his popular vote margin from 2008 and the difference between that election and his current figures.

State          2008 Election       2009 Approval       2010 Adjusted      % Change
Oklahoma        34.4                       48.0                        42.0                +7.6
Utah                 34.2                      47.8                        41.8                 +7.6
Kentucky          41.2                      52.8                       46.2                 +5.0
Alabama           38.7                      49.1                        43.0                +4.3
South Carolina  44.9                      56.1                        49.1                +4.2
Arkansas          38.9                      49.2                        43.1                +4.2
South Dakota   44.8                      55.8                        48.8                +4.0
North Dakota   44.5                      55.3                        48.4                +3.9
Louisiana          39.9                      50.0                        43.8                +3.9
Wyoming          32.5                      41.6                        36.4                +3.9
Tennessee         41.8                      51.8                        45.3                +3.5
Kansas             41.6                      51.4                        45.0                +3.4
Arizona            44.9                      54.7                        47.9                 +3.0
Alaska             37.9                       46.0                       40.3                 +2.4
Mississippi       43.0                       51.8                       45.3                 +2.3
Nebraska         41.6                      50.2                        43.9                 +2.3
Idaho               35.9                      43.3                        37.9                 +2.0
Georgia            46.9                      55.6                        48.7                 +1.8
Texas               43.6                      51.9                        45.4                 +1.8
Minnesota        54.1                      61.5                        53.8                  -0.3
Missouri           49.2                      55.5                        48.6                  -0.6
Florida             50.9                      56.8                        49.7                  -1.2
North Carolina 49.7                      55.4                        48.5                  -1.2
Indiana             49.9                      55.3                        48.4                  -1.5
New Jersey      57.1                      63.0                        55.1                  -2.0
Virginia             52.6                      57.7                        50.5                  -2.1
Connecticut       60.6                     66.7                        58.4                  -2.2
West Virginia    42.5                     45.9                        40.2                   -2.3
Ohio                 51.4                     55.3                        48.4                   -3.0
Massachusetts   61.8                     66.8                        58.5                   -3.3
Iowa                 53.9                     57.7                        50.5                   -3.4
New York        62.9                     67.2                        58.8                   -4.1
Pennsylvania      54.5                     57.4                        50.2                  -4.3
Rhode Island     62.9                     66.6                        58.3                   -4.6
Michigan           57.3                     60.2                        52.7                   -4.6
Illinois                61.9                    65.2                        57.1                   -4.8
Montana            47.1                    48.1                        42.1                   -5.0
Washington        56.2                   58.4                         51.1                   -5.1
California           60.9                   63.7                         55.7                   -5.2
Maine                57.7                   59.4                         52.0                   -5.7
Wisconsin          56.2                   57.7                         50.5                   -5.7
Nevada              55.2                   55.9                        48.9                    -6.3
New Hampshire  54.1                  54.6                        47.8                    -6.3
Oregon               56.8                  57.6                        50.4                    -6.4
Colorado            53.7                  52.3                        45.8                    -7.9
New Mexico       56.9                  55.9                        48.9                    -8.0
Vermont              67.5                  67.7                        59.2                    -8.3
Delaware             61.9                  61.1                       53.5                     -8.4
Hawaii                 71.9                 70.8                        62.0                     -9.9
Maryland             61.9                 58.5                        51.2                    -10.7
D.C.                    92.5                 90.2                        78.9                    -13.6
TOTAL               52.9                 57.2                        50.0                     -2.9

The above data points to the possibility that most of President Obama’s losses of late have been in solidly “blue” states from 2008. This should comfort supporters knowing that many of the built-in electoral advantages from that election appear to be safely in tact. On the flip side however the vast majority of post-election gains for the President appear to be in states where his approval rating is already low and where he was not competitive in 2008. In between we have several states that, if they follow current trends, could be in play for 2012 where they were viewed as solid or likely wins for Obama shortly after his resounding victory in 2008.

For classification purposes lets place every state where President Obama currently has an approval rating exceeding 58% in the “safe” column. Those where his job approval is less than 58% but greater than 53% are “likely” for the President. States where Obama registers below 47% but greater than 42% would be “unlikely” victories in 2012, states where he is below 42% are solid “red” for whoever his Republican opponent turns out to be. Then we have the gray area where Obama’s current approval rating rests above 47% but below 53% for a category we’ll classify as “battleground” states.

Obama won comfortably in eleven states (CT, MA, NY, RI, IL, CA, VT, DE, HI, MD, DC) including the District of Columbia in 2008. Those states accumulated 153-electoral votes for the President, well more than half the 270 needed for victory. Currently the President’s approval rating has dropped below the 58% threshold in his home state of Illinois, California, Delaware and Maryland. Without those four his “safe” electoral total would plummet to a mere 64-votes, this before new census data to be released later this year will reshape things further.

The picture is similarly disturbing for the President when discussing those states that fall in the category of likely victories in 2012 when compared to his success in 2008. Against Senator John McCain then Senator Barack Obama had twelve state wins by comfortable margins of 53-58%. Although the electoral clout (110) from 2008 isn’t much different than it is now (104), Obama has just five states (MN, NJ, IL, CA, DE) he can categorize as likely to stay blue in 2012. Overall Obama won 23-states containing 263-electoral votes by more than 53% in his election victory of less than a year and a half ago. Based solely off his current approval rating that present total is just twelve-states and 168-votes strong.

Lastly we take a look at the “battleground” or “swing” states that have played a crucial role in deciding the first two elections of the past decade and may do so again in 2012. Obama had only six states (MO, FL, NC, IN, VA, MT) where he pulled in between 47-53% of the popular vote in 2008. Now in 2010 based off his currently job approval there are a whopping 29-states that fit that description. Battleground states made up just eighty-electoral votes in the last election but as of right now they are on pace to contain 227.

The President can perhaps take solace in the fact that he managed to win 23 of those 29 states currently classified as part of the electoral battleground. However nine of those states and 81-electoral votes have moved from likely Obama victories to battleground states over the course of the fifteen months since Election 2008. On the other hand of the six battleground states Obama lost in 2008 only Missouri and possibly Georgia offer him a realistic shot at victory in 2012. The President would need to win every state he is currently polling strongly in and around 45% of the many battleground states where his approval ratings average out to around 50%. While it would be silly to consider those long odds the current electoral landscape does present a significantly greater challenge to President Obama now and perhaps as far off as November, 2012 than it did for 2008.

It is of course very early to be analyzing an electoral map scenario for 2012 especially without knowing who the President’s opponent is likely to be at that point in time. Still much of the information gathered is valuable in assessing current trends that could ultimately affect the political landscape in the coming years.

PHOTO CREDIT: ASSOCIATED PRESS / SUSAN WALSH