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Protestors and demonstrators in Iran took to the streets defying orders from the Ayatollah Kahmanei to stay off the streets and were heard chanting "Death to Kahmanei".
What most observers who understand internal Iranian politics are saying is what we are now seeing in Iran is unprecedented. It is Iran's single biggest taboo to challenge the authority of Iran's supreme leader and that is exactly what the demonstrators are doing.
The consensus among those who understand the culture and politics of Iran is the demonstrators have crossed a point of no return. Robin Wright, who has written extensively on Iran for years said on CNN that she believes Kahmanei is fighting for his political life. And she as well as others have said this is no longer about the election. It's become much bigger. It has become what the system of government in Iran is going to be.
And while other European leaders and even the US Congress have made their condemnation of the current government and their actions clear and have voiced clear support for the demonstrators, Obama has chosen to take the " I don't want to be seen as meddling" approach and has watched it all from the sidelines. As events in Iran become more dramatic, Obama's position has gotten to the point where it's becoming increasingly irrelevant.
Iran has already come out and condemned France, Great Britain and Germany for their "meddling" statements. So what does Obama think? That by trying to stay in the good graces of an oppressive and now murderous regime he is somehow going to affect change through negotiation?
Change is occuring within Iran without Obama.With the protestors having crossed a line of no return experts say it is not going to be possible for the ruling mullahs in Iran to hold onto power without unleashing the worst violence against their own people that the middle east has seen since Sadaam used chemical weapons to put down a revolt of the Kurds.
So one of two things are going to happen. Either the demonstrators are going to succeed in overthrowing the current government which has already become destabilized, or the conservatives in Iran will unleash an unprecedented bloodbath against the protestors. Either way Obama's position of trying to stay in their good graces for the sake of negotiation has become obsolete, a situation that neither he nor his advisors have been able to recognize.
The other argument being made for Obama's soft pedaling is he doesnt want to be used as a "foil" or an excuse by the current governement to unleash more violence against the demonstrators.
Is he kidding? All he has to do is warn Iran publicly against doing just that and make it clear publicly that the safety of the demonstrators is the responsibility of the Iranian government and that any attempts to use the United States as an excuse to commit murder or human rights violations against its own people will be just that -- an excuse.
To see and read and hear these fumbling excuses by the Obama Administration and Obama himself as to why he has chosen "not to meddle" in an unprecedented revolution by the moderates and liberals in Iran is too reminiscent of the ineptness of George Bush to be believed.
As events continue to unfold in Iran, Obama's position is becoming more and more absurd each passing minute.
The Congress, in response to what they saw as a tepid response from Obama overwhelmingly passed resolutions of support for the demonstrators and condemnation of the current Iranian government. In response, Obama yesterday decided to issue a statement that was stronger than those of the past few days. But his statement that " the whole world is watching" was still typical Obama -- stating the obvious, borrowing the chants of the anti-war demonstrators in the US in the 1960's and telling us what everyone has known for days and hardly needs to be pointed out --- yes the world is watching.
But Obama's decision to sit on the sidelines in order to preserve some future attempt at negotiating with the current regime has been usurped whether he likes it or not. There are already reports that anywhere from 19 to 150 people have been killed by government police and militia. If this continues and the present government cracks down harder on the demonstrators and the violence increases it will be impossible for Obama to "negotiate" anything with the current Iranian government if they succeed in quashing the revolution. Any outstretched hand to this government after a bloodbath will look like the worst kind of appeasement.
Yet all of this represents a golden opportunity for the United States. If the current government becomes destabilized or even toppled, that, and not Obama's "outstretched hand" to a government that chants "Death to America" would be the best chance of a non-nuclear Iran which would be a benefit to the world.
But so far Obama has not seized the opportunity. He insists on giving legitimacy to the current government..The world seems ready to line up against the current Iranian government and their actions as the statements of condemnation from other European countries have shown. Obama could be the one to rally them. Instead he doesn't want to "meddle".
People are taking their lives into their hands to stand up against a repressive government that poses a threat to the whole world and Obama is worried about Iran's reaction to his own response, which when one thinks about it, doesn't bode well for how Obama would handle negotiations with Ahmedenjad anyway.
It should be clear by now that there is a revolution taking place and so far, Obama's approach in trying to preserve a "negotiating" position with the present oppressive government has made him look weak and foolish. Events in Iran will make any attempts at negotiating with the current government impossible in the future. Instead Obama should try and seize this opportunity to rally and lead the rest of the world to condemn the actions of the Iranian goverment . He could call for new supervised elections. He could do a lot of things but he isn't.
The revolution has started without him. Millions of Iranians are demanding change and putting their lives on the line to try and achieve it. .But so far it doesn't seem like change Obama can believe in.
UPDATE: Not to put too fine a point on this, but today (Sunday June 21) Hillary Mann Levit a former foreign policy advisor to the Bush Administration in an interview with CNN said that Obama's earlier statements and his "not meddling" position was the right one to take. She went on to say that his first statement saying that there was no difference between Ahmedenjad and Mousavi and it made no difference to him who was president in Iran was also the right thing to say.
History has shown that George W Bush was without a doubt the most inept and incompetent President in history. He was wrong on every foreign policy decision he ever made and when you have one his advisors saying that Obama has done the right thing, that alone should give Obama cause to reconsider.
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But isn't it really none of our business what happens in a country halfway around the world, that has nothing to do with us? The last time we decided for another country what their government should look like, it turned into the Iraq war. 80 people died in a suicide attack there just days ago, something that seems to happen quite regularly. Ask an Iraqi how many of their friends and family were killed with regularity just going out to the market while Saddam was in charge. Its solely the duty of the Iranian people to revolt and win their freedom, we Americans have enough problems of our own right here at home.
Spot on Mr. Rubin.
And I suspect that I am not alone in tiring at comments from neo-isolationist twits that seem to have missed the meaning of the information age and fail to understand both the irresistable force and implications of a global economy. Anyone that thinks what goes on in Iran is irrelevant to us is simply an idiot.
Whines about lost lives are comparably tiresome. With certainty, everyone of us is going to die. The most salient question is never how long did we live. It is the choices we made in deciding how. In freedom, you can exercise choice.
You can not choose freedom for yourself without accepting the moral duty of speaking out for it for others. Listening is their choice.
The key to this has been the way Obama over the past weeks has robbed Kahmanei of his "Great Satan". The proactive outreach by Obama to the Muslim world in general and the Iranian people in particular make the “Great Satin” claim look sudddenly ridiculous to the people of Tehran. This has boosted the power of the protesters. Clearly if Obama pushed hard in support ff the opposition candidates, they would be doomed as Kahmanei and the hardliners would claim to be saving Iran from external forces. Severe misunderstandings of the situation in Iran and poor (but loudly shouted) recommendations pop up in articles like this right now. But luckily we have an administration, and people close to the situation, implementing the right real support. If that does not play to the Republican base, well so be it.
Obama actually said there is likely no difference in *policy" between the various policy. For national policy such as relations with other countries and nuclear program this is absolutely true. Why. Structurally that is not an area of policy that the Iranian president controls. In addition the leading opposition candidate is a part of and supporter of the current system but not of the actions of the top cleric. There is not marching in the streets to overthrow the system but rather clean up the corruption and power brokering.
Mark, you might want to start watching GPS on CNN for experts on Iran. Just about every expert out there would disagree with you. You can catch Sunday's GPS on CNN online – check out the Zbigniew Brzezinski video on this subject.
Everyone that has an once of credibility, including Henry Kissinger, Collin Powell, and Zbigniew Brzezinski have said that the President is saying exactly the right things. History will tell you over and over again that he is doing the right thing, the smart thing. Circumstances may change, but for now Obama is spot on. William Clinton would be doing the same thing and your Republican President, Bush 42, would also be doing the same thing, and did!
Mark, I hope you read the “Thoughtful” comment; he/she has done their homework.
One thing I might disagree on - many experts that have met with the leading opposition candidate in Iran say that he has in fact changed.
Jeez, give Obama some credit. Haven't you noticed yet that he's a pretty smart guy? The reason he's keeping a low profile is because the *last* thing the Iranian opposition needs or wants is the Americans jumping in on their side. It would be the kiss of death for their revolution.
What an astoundingly ignorant article.
This is IRAN we're talking about. This may not get a lot of attention in history classes stateside but that's the country the U.S. already overthrew the elected government of once in the last century and then proceeded to install a dictator who would serve American interests. The average American may not have a clue about it, but good luck finding ANY Iranian who isn't very aware of that fact.
The absolute last thing in the world that the protesters want is the U.S. government publicly taking their side. Convince the average person in Iran that this is a U.S. backed move against the government of the country and the movement is OVER. Why do you think *Khamenei* is the one desperately trying to convince people that this is the result of foreign meddling by western powers? Because if he makes the public believe that he'll have carte blanche to crush it.
And your plan is to encourage that perception?
Obama's right, you're wrong, the end
You know, I agree. But, far too many of us are quite sick of the constant references to Bush. Even moderates and many Dems are getting a little tired of it. It is irrelevant in this article.
DUDE. The US has ALREADY helped overthrow a government in Iran and basically put in the Shah who was for pro-Western interests. The US has already meddled once. Iran revolted against the Shah. This was in 1979. Iranians KNOW that the US meddled in their government, and they didn't like it then, and they don't like it now.
If the US gets involved, and Khamenei can say that Mousavi is a US/Western TOOL just like the Shah was, it will KILL this movement. This movement will LOSE support amongst it's own people, if they truly believe that the US is manipulating them into putting a US TOOL into office.
You know nothing of history. Your desire to blame Obama for the world's ills has blinded you to simple history and facts and logic.
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