I have preached over the last few months that anyone who thinks that GM or Chrysler would survive the pounding that they are currently taking and bounce back to what they once were is insane. They have long past seen their glory days, and if they eventually emerge viable they will be former shells of themselves. With the growth of Hyundai, Kia, Subaru, VW et al, American automakers will become mid packers in the global realm.
Evidence of this comes to us today via R.L. Polk who says that General Motors will be overtaken by Volkswagen AG this year and fall to the world's third-largest automaker by production volume.
GM, who is surviving with the aid of U.S. loans, will suffer a 31 percent drop in production this year, Polk said. VW will likely only see a slide of some 15 percent, thanks in part to its low exposure to the U.S. auto market, where sales have dropped 38.4 percent through March.
"Volkswagen will therefore overtake GM and advance to become the new No. 2 after Toyota," Polk said in a press release today.
Polk, on the bright side, expects global car output to increase in 2010 again, with strong growth rates in the next two years that allow the market to achieve a record production level of more than 70 million vehicles in 2012.
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