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The global steel market will grow by 9.2 percent next year as demand rebounds in the U.S., China, India, Europe and Japan, the World Steel Association said.
“There are clear signs that the bottom has been reached in the market,” Director General Ian Christmas said in Beijing today. Consumption may rise to 1.2 billion metric tons next year, the association said.
Steelmakers are restarting output at mills in China, india,Europe and the U.S. as the economy shows signs of recovery. ArcelorMittal, forecast a third-quarter pretax profit after three periods of losses, and China’s Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. said earnings will rise “significantly” in the second half as demand from makers of cars and appliances expands.
“China has confounded our expectations,” Christmas said. Steel consumption in the Asian nation may expand 19 percent this year to 526 million tons, helping to limit the global decline, the association said.
Apparent steel demand, which excludes inventories, will fall 8.6 percent globally this year, better than the 14 percent decline forecast in April, the association said. Without China, demand would fall by 24 percent, it said.
China’s steel output, the largest in the world, reached a record this year .The association, which represents about 180 steelmakers globally, is holding its annual meeting in Beijing this week.
The emerging economies of China and India will rebound faster than the economies of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development which may have a “slow, painful” recovery, Christmas said.
Plants in the U.S. were operating at capacity as low as 45 percent because of a slump in demand, Mr Mittal chief executive officer of ArcelorMittal, said today at a press conference in Beijing.
The pace of restocking in the U.S. has improved, said Mittal, the outgoing chairman of the association. The best opportunity for consolidation in the industry is in China,and India.
Steel prices in the U.S. rose 13 percent in September . U.S. steel demand will rise19 percent next year to 72 million tons, the association predicted.
Steel use in the European Union will plunge 33 percent this year to 122 million tons and jump by 12.4 percent next year, it also said.
Apparent steel use in Japan will drop 31 percent this year and recover by 16 percent in 2010 to reach 61 million tons, it said. China’s demand will rise 5 percent in 2010, and India’s will grow by 12 percent, it said.
China produced more steel last year than the combined output of Japan, the U.S., Russia and India, the next four biggest makers, according to the World Steel Association.
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