Christopher Christie-campaign photo
Two days before a crucial visit to the state by President Barack Obama, Quinnipiac University released the results of its most recent polling in the New Jersey governor's race, and the results are not good for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Republican challenger Christopher Christie has widened his lead over Corzine to 12 points, 53-41% in a head-to-head match up. That is up two points from last month, when Christie led 50-40 in a two-way race. In the three-way race including independent Chris Daggett, Christie's lead over Corzine remains significant at 47-38, with Daggett taking eight percent of the vote.
The Corzine campaign hopes that the president's visit for a fundraiser and rally will begin the governor's long climb back into the race. But it is by no means guaranteed. Corzine's favorable ratings and job approval numbers continue to sink as the campaign progresses toward November. The Quinnipiac poll shows Corzine is viewed favorably by just 34 percent of likely voters with 48 percent having an unfavorable view, an increase of five percent this month. Just 33 percent of New Jersey voters now approve of the job Corzine is doing as governor, compared to 60 percent that disapprove. That number is up four points since the last survey in June.
President Obama's approval numbers, by contrast, remain strong at 60 percent, although they are down eight points from last month as well. The Corzine campaign and the White House hope that some of voters' approval of the president rubs off on the governor. The visit is likely to give Corzine a boost in the polls, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough to make the race competitive and warrant a return trip by Obama.
It is significant that Christie has made gains in the poll both in the head-to-head match up and in his favorable ratings as voters have gotten to know him better. The uptick has also come despite a Corzine ad blitz seeking to paint Christie as ethically challenged. The negative ads, which have been on the air since right before the Republican primary, may have backfired on Corzine with independent voters. That critical voting bloc now gives Christie a commanding 36 point lead over Corzine, 64-28%. Christie has benefited from negative advertising as well, conducted on his behalf by the national Republican Governors Association. The key difference is that the ads run on Christie's behalf have tended to reinforce already negative attitudes in the public about Corzine, while Corzine's ads have yet to make a serious dent in Christie's image.
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