Tropical Depression # 3 forms in the Bahamas, watches and warnings for US

Courtesy of NOAA

Tropical Depression #3 has formed in southeast Bahamas this morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories on TD#3. Tropical Depression # 3 is located at 21.9 north and 75.0 west or about 265 miles southeast of Nassau Bahamas or 405 miles east-southeast of Key Largo Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph and the center of circulation has a low pressure of 1008mb.TD#3 is moving towards the west-northwest at 15 mph. TD#3 is forecast to pick up its forward speed over the next day or two as the area of high pressure builds back to the west. An Air Force reconnaissance plan is en route to this area to determine if TD#3 is actually Tropical Storm Bonnie.Please see the watches and warnings posted below.

Computer models show a good consensus of potential track into the Gulf of Mexico and the official forecast form the NHC is a reflection of that. The official track takes TD#3 through the Florida Keys into the central Gulf and then more northwestward towards the Tex/La border. This track will affect the Gulf Oil spill region and it seems the decision to stop the cleanup activities is going to pay off. The track and forward speed of TD#3/Tropical Storm Bonnie is dependent on how strong an area of high gets. This high pressure ridge is located off the coast of the southeast U.S.

At this time the official forecast calls for this system to become a strong tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The inhibiting factor will be if that upper level low (UUL) stays close to this system. What is needed is for a couple of computer model runs to take place that have the new coordinates and strength ingested. That way we will get a better idea of where this system goes and how strong it gets. Remember the hardest part of tropical cyclone forecasting is predicting intensity, so have your plans ready for a hurricane just in case. PLEASE SEE SLIDE SHOW

We also have Invest 98L located in the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This area is also getting better organized and could be a tropical cyclone within the next day or two. It doesn’t have much time to strengthen as it’s close to the Northeast Mexican coast. The NHC gives 98L a 50% chance of developing. 98L is moving towards the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Computer models are in good agreement that 98L will make landfall in the northeast Mexican coast in a couple of days.

From the NHC

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BONITA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here