The early forecast for the 2010 hurricane season in the Atlantic
basin calls for above normal levels of activity. (NOAA)
The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University (CSU) has issued its preliminary forecast for the Atlantic hurricane basin for next year. Generated by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray, the forecast calls for above normal levels of tropical cyclone activity.
For the 2010 season, Klotzbach and Gray expect an “above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2010 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.” In terms of numbers, they forecast 11 - 16 named storms, 6 - 8 hurricanes, and 3 - 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger).
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2009 hurricane season wrapped up quite a bit below normal with the fewest storms since 1997. Check out our slideshow below for images from the 2009 hurricane season.
For the first time, the CSU team is issuing a range for the number of forecast storms instead of a specific number. This is more in line with the forecasts that the National Hurricane Center issues.
In terms of landfall probability for a major hurricane, the team also expects an increased chance. They peg the chance of a Category 3 or greater storm striking the U.S. coastline at 64% which is well above the average of 52%. The U.S. East Coast has a 40% chance of sustaining a hit (versus a 31% average) and the Gulf Coast has a 40% chance as well (versus a 30% average).
The CSU team is one of the few to issue hurricane season forecasts so far in advance of the June to November ‘official’ hurricane season. They provide this as a public service to emergency managers, residents and the media.
In recent years, the December forecasts have not proven to be extraordinarily accurate however the team said, “We believe our new early December forecast scheme will begin to demonstrate forecast skill in the coming years.”
A look at historical hurricanes indicates no link between global
warming and increased hurricane frequency or strength. (CSU)
Dr. Gray has long railed against the belief that global warming will cause an increase in hurricane activity and strength and includes a discussion on the topic in his report. As reported previously, global tropical cyclone activity in recent years has been near a 30 year low.
“We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that Atlantic hurricane frequency or intensity will change significantly if global ocean temperatures were to continue to rise,” the team says. They point to the fact that during the period from 1945 – 1969 when temperatures were cooler, more major hurricanes were experienced than in the warmer period from 1970 to 1994. The team also notes that the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes was greater in the first half of the 20th century than the second half through 2009.
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